Mu Haoming, Zhang Peng
College of Geographical Science, Harbin Normal University, Harbin, 150025, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jun 2;15(1):19294. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-04137-7.
The population of northeast China has decreased by over 10 million from 2010 to 2020, resulting in an ageing population and economic and social development challenges. The decline in population is closely related to fertility desire. Thus, this study establishes a quantitative index system for fertility desire, tailored to the three northeastern provinces of China, using data from 4155 questionnaires. It innovatively examines the 'three-dimensional differentiation' characteristics of this system. The study reveals that residents' fertility desire in the three northeastern provinces exhibits a spatial pattern characterised by 'one axis and multiple rings', with high fertility desire values situated east of the Harbin-Changchun-Shenyang-Dalian regional development axis. Residents' fertility desire is influenced by various factors, including educational background, family pressure, and population migration to the south, indicating a trend towards internalisation. This paper offers a reference for developing differentiated regional population policies.
从2010年到2020年，中国东北地区人口减少了1000多万，导致人口老龄化以及经济和社会发展面临挑战。人口下降与生育意愿密切相关。因此，本研究利用4155份调查问卷的数据，建立了一套针对中国东北三省的生育意愿定量指标体系。本研究创新性地考察了该体系的“三维分化”特征。研究发现，东北三省居民的生育意愿呈现出“一轴多环”的空间格局，生育意愿较高的值位于哈尔滨—长春—沈阳—大连区域发展轴以东。居民的生育意愿受到多种因素的影响，包括教育背景、家庭压力以及人口向南方迁移等，呈现出内部化趋势。本文为制定差异化的区域人口政策提供了参考。
