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二孩政策实施后中国育龄青年生育意愿——一项系统评价与Meta分析

Fertility intention of young people of childbearing age in China after the implementation of the two-child policy-A systematic review and meta-analysis.

作者信息

Ren Yuanyi, Cheng Xu, Niu Changmin, Yang Fan, Zheng Ying

机构信息

School of Nursing, School of Public Health, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, China.

Department of Histology and Embryology, School of Medicine, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, Jiangsu, 225009, China.

出版信息

BMC Public Health. 2024 Dec 18;24(1):3518. doi: 10.1186/s12889-024-20956-1.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

In recent years, due to the continuous increase of China's aging population and the decline of birth rate, China 's population base has declined sharply, and the fertility problem of young people has attracted much attention from scholars. Therefore, this study aims to comprehensively analyze the fertility intentions of young people of childbearing age and their influencing factors, explore the reasons for China's low fertility rate, and provide a reasonable theoretical basis for the formulation of subsequent fertility-related policies.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted from January 2012 to September 2023 through the databases PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, CNKI, Wanfang, and VIP using keywords including fertility desire, fertility intention, fertility plan, fertility purpose, fertility motivation, youth, urban youth, school-age youth, childbearing age youth in Chinese; and fertility desire, fertility intention, fertility plan, fertility willingness, youth, young people, child-bearing youth, and school-age youth in English. Two reviewers independently screened studies, extracted data, and appraised the risk of bias. RevMan 5.2 was used for the Meta-analysis of all outcomes.

RESULTS

This study systematically evaluated 18 cross-sectional surveys, which included a total of 43,427 participants, with a combined fertility intention of 11.85%. Subgroup analyses revealed that gender, age, education level, economic level, nature of the household, number of existing children, and gender of the first child were related to fertility intentions of young people of childbearing age. In terms of fertility attitudes, the expectations of contemporary young people of childbearing age have shifted from the traditional attitude of "emphasizing sons over daughters" to the attitude of " gender equality ".

CONCLUSION

The low fertility intentions of young people of childbearing age in China are constrained by a combination of economic, age, and level of education. The government may increase the fertility intention of young people by increasing the economic support for fertility, implementing the local education promotion related to "parenting", and actively implementing the early and active fertility of young people of childbearing age.

摘要

背景

近年来,由于中国老龄化人口持续增加以及出生率下降,中国人口基数急剧下降,年轻人的生育问题备受学者关注。因此,本研究旨在全面分析育龄年轻人的生育意愿及其影响因素,探究中国低生育率的原因,并为后续生育相关政策的制定提供合理的理论依据。

方法

通过PubMed、Web of Science、Embase、中国知网(CNKI)、万方和维普等数据库,使用包括生育愿望、生育意愿、生育计划、生育目的、生育动机、青年、城市青年、学龄青年、育龄青年(中文);生育愿望、生育意愿、生育计划、生育意愿、青年、年轻人、育龄青年、学龄青年(英文)等关键词,对2012年1月至2023年9月的文献进行系统检索。两名评审员独立筛选研究、提取数据并评估偏倚风险。使用RevMan 5.2对所有结果进行Meta分析。

结果

本研究系统评价了18项横断面调查,共纳入43427名参与者,综合生育意愿为11.85%。亚组分析显示,性别、年龄、教育水平、经济水平、家庭性质、现有子女数量和头胎性别与育龄年轻人的生育意愿有关。在生育态度方面,当代育龄年轻人的期望已从传统的“重男轻女”观念转变为“性别平等”观念。

结论

中国育龄年轻人的低生育意愿受到经济、年龄和教育水平等多种因素的制约。政府可通过增加生育经济支持、实施与“育儿”相关的地方教育促进措施以及积极推动育龄年轻人尽早积极生育等方式,提高年轻人的生育意愿。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c2fa/11657275/9b8f0a3f0e79/12889_2024_20956_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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