Carbon reduction strategies for logistics based on emission prediction under multi-scenarios in coastal developed region.

The differences in logistics carbon emission and carbon absorption in different areas lead to potential conflicts in the green development of regional logistics. The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) in China is a critical coastal developed region for economic integration development and opening up, with logistics playing a substantial role in energy consumption and carbon emissions. Therefore, addressing the low-carbon transformation of logistics in the YRD is a matter of great concern. The framework of carbon balance accounting and prediction of logistics consist of 'basic accounting-factor analysis-prediction simulation' is constructed. Then, this study accounts the logistics carbon emissions (LCE) and logistics carbon capacity (LCC) in the four subregions (Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui) from 2010 to 2021. Estimates the influencing factors of LCE through the geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression model (GTWR). Then, constructs the prediction model for the logistics carbon balance statue based on System Dynamics (SD) structure under four single-factor scenarios and two cross-factor scenarios from 2022 to 2030. Results showed that: (1) The logistics carbon deficit in the YRD is prominent. And the four sub-regions show different spatio-temporal evolution characteristics. (2) The influences of economic level and technical level on LCE are particularly obvious and also has spatio-temporal heterogeneity. (3) There is a trade-off between the pursuit of economic development and carbon emission control. S1 and S2 will continue to witness the increase of logistics carbon pollution. Under S3-S4, the effect of LCE reduction is relatively weak. S5 shows a significant carbon reduction effect, S6 could achieve a good balance between economic development and carbon emissions. (4) Promote the reform of transportation from highway to railway, ensure access to affordable and clean energy for logistic, promote the coordinated carbon reduction of regional logistics and synchronous construction of ecological and artificial carbon pool based on the conditions of developed coastal areas could be feasible paths to achieve carbon balance for YRD.