Liao Jian, Li Gaocong, Zhang Shuiyuan, Yang Yuanfeng, Li Yiyang, Dong Zhongdian, Guo Yusong, Wang Zhongduo
Key Laboratory of Aquaculture in South China Sea for Aquatic Economic Animals of Guangdong Higher Education Institutes, Fisheries College, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang, 524088, China.
School of Electronics and Information Engineering, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang, 524088, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jun 5;15(1):19710. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-04364-y.
Mangroves, as a salt-tolerant evergreen broad-leaved vegetation ecosystem, are widely distributed along the coastlines of tropical and subtropical regions. In the field of ecology, scholars generally agree that climatic drivers, particularly temperature and precipitation patterns, play a crucial role in regulating the global distribution, structure, and functions of mangroves. However, there are still significant challenges in research exploring the relationship between climate and mangrove distribution. This study focused on two dominant mangrove species in the northern margin of the South China Sea: Kandelia obovata and Avicennia marina. By compiling reported data, utilizing database information, and integrating our field observations, we employed species distribution models to simulate the distribution areas of these two species and their habitat changes under global warming scenarios. Our results indicate that bio18 serves as the primary climatic factor shaping their distribution patterns. Specifically, K. obovata is primarily distributed in the Northern Hemisphere, while A. Marina exhibits a much broader distribution range, encompassing over 40 times the area of K. obovata. The niche overlap between these two species is relatively low, and global warming is further promoting the separation of their niches. Notably, the continued warming of the climate in the future is not expected to pose a significant threat to K. obovata. However, it significantly increases the risk of habitat loss for A. marina. This study underscores the urgent need to implement conservation measures for mangrove ecosystems, with particular priority given to those species that are currently experiencing or are vulnerable to habitat loss.
红树林作为一种耐盐常绿阔叶林植被生态系统，广泛分布于热带和亚热带地区的海岸线。在生态学领域，学者们普遍认为气候驱动因素，特别是温度和降水模式，在调节红树林的全球分布、结构和功能方面起着关键作用。然而，在探索气候与红树林分布之间关系的研究中仍存在重大挑战。本研究聚焦于南海北部边缘的两种优势红树林物种：秋茄和白骨壤。通过汇编已报道的数据、利用数据库信息并结合我们的实地观察，我们运用物种分布模型来模拟这两种物种的分布区域及其在全球变暖情景下的栖息地变化。我们的结果表明，生物18是塑造它们分布格局的主要气候因素。具体而言，秋茄主要分布在北半球，而白骨壤的分布范围要广泛得多，其分布面积是秋茄的40多倍。这两个物种之间的生态位重叠相对较低，全球变暖进一步促使它们的生态位分离。值得注意的是，预计未来气候持续变暖不会对秋茄构成重大威胁。然而，这显著增加了白骨壤栖息地丧失的风险。本研究强调迫切需要对红树林生态系统实施保护措施，尤其要优先保护那些目前正经历栖息地丧失或易受栖息地丧失影响的物种。
