Gebrechorkos Solomon H, Sheffield Justin, Vicente-Serrano Sergio M, Funk Chris, Miralles Diego G, Peng Jian, Dyer Ellen, Talib Joshua, Beck Hylke E, Singer Michael B, Dadson Simon J
School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
Nature. 2025 Jun;642(8068):628-635. doi: 10.1038/s41586-025-09047-2. Epub 2025 Jun 4.
Drought is one of the most common and complex natural hazards affecting the environment, economies and populations globally. However, there are significant uncertainties in global drought trends, and a limited understanding of the extent to which a key driver, atmospheric evaporative demand (AED), impacts the recent evolution of the magnitude, frequency, duration and areal extent of droughts. Here, by developing an ensemble of high-resolution global drought datasets for 1901-2022, we find an increasing trend in drought severity worldwide. Our findings suggest that AED has increased drought severity by an average of 40% globally. Not only are typically dry regions becoming drier but also wet areas are experiencing drying trends. During the past 5 years (2018-2022), the areas in drought have expanded by 74% on average compared with 1981-2017, with AED contributing to 58% of this increase. The year 2022 was record-breaking, with 30% of the global land area affected by moderate and extreme droughts, 42% of which was attributed to increased AED. Our findings indicate that AED has an increasingly important role in driving severe droughts and that this tendency will likely continue under future warming scenarios.
干旱是影响全球环境、经济和人口的最常见且复杂的自然灾害之一。然而，全球干旱趋势存在重大不确定性，对于关键驱动因素——大气蒸发需求（AED）对干旱强度、频率、持续时间和面积范围近期演变的影响程度，人们的了解有限。在此，通过构建1901年至2022年的高分辨率全球干旱数据集集合，我们发现全球干旱严重程度呈上升趋势。我们的研究结果表明，AED使全球干旱严重程度平均增加了40%。不仅典型干旱地区变得更加干旱，湿润地区也出现了干旱趋势。在过去5年（2018年至2022年），与1981年至2017年相比，干旱区域平均扩大了74%，其中AED导致的增加占58%。2022年是破纪录的一年，全球30%的陆地面积受到中度和极端干旱影响，其中42%归因于AED增加。我们的研究结果表明，AED在引发严重干旱方面发挥着越来越重要的作用，而且在未来变暖情景下这种趋势可能会持续。
