Zhang Weijie, Wu Yingjie, Guo Hengzhi, Li Wei, An Jiuji, Wang Sinan
Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Yinshanbeilu Grassland Eco-Hydrology National Observation and Research Station, Beijing, 100038, China.
Institute of Water Resources of Pastoral Area Ministry of Water Resources, Hohhot, 010020, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Aug 2;15(1):28225. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-14236-0.
Meteorological drought is the primary cause of agricultural drought. Studying how agricultural drought responds to meteorological drought is crucial for understanding drought evolution. This paper takes the inland river basin of the Inner Mongolia Plateau as the research object, characterizes meteorological drought and agricultural drought respectively by the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the standardized Soil Water Index (SSMI), analyzes the spatio-temporal continuous dynamic evolution characteristics of drought in the study area from 1961 to 2021, explores the spatio-temporal response characteristics of meteorological and agricultural drought, and establishes a drought characteristic response model. The results show that: (1) The three dimensional (3D) identification method can accurately and comprehensively understand the dynamic evolution process of drought events and regional drought development law; (2) A total of 28 drought event pairs were successfully matched from 1961 to 2021, and the matching results can ensure that the complex relationship between the two types of droughts on the temporal and spatial scale is closer to reality; (3) The optimal response models for duration, area and severity of drought in the study area are Gaussian Copula function, Clayton Copula function and Clayton Copula function, respectively. This study provides a new method for accurately assessing the spatio-temporal variation and response of drought.
气象干旱是农业干旱的主要成因。研究农业干旱如何响应气象干旱对于理解干旱演变至关重要。本文以内蒙古高原内陆河流域为研究对象,分别用标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)和标准化土壤水分指数(SSMI)表征气象干旱和农业干旱,分析了1961—2021年研究区域干旱的时空连续动态演变特征,探究了气象干旱和农业干旱的时空响应特征,并建立了干旱特征响应模型。结果表明:(1)三维(3D)识别方法能够准确、全面地了解干旱事件的动态演变过程及区域干旱发展规律;(2)1961—2021年共成功匹配到28对干旱事件对,匹配结果能保证两类干旱在时空尺度上的复杂关系更贴近实际;(3)研究区域干旱历时、面积和强度的最优响应模型分别为高斯Copula函数、克莱顿Copula函数和克莱顿Copula函数。本研究为准确评估干旱的时空变化及响应提供了一种新方法。