Xie Xiaofeng, Kong Jianhui, Hu Xiuying, Zhao Li, Chen Xudong, Yang Yang, Zhang Fengying
West China Hospital/West China School of Nursing, Innovation Center of Nursing Research, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
Law School, Southwest Minzu University, Chengdu, China.
Mob Netw Appl. 2022;27(2):822-835. doi: 10.1007/s11036-021-01809-2. Epub 2021 Aug 14.
Given the complexity and uncertainty of the current COVID-19 risks, the elderly people in long-term care facilities are at the highest risk for infection. In order to study the prevention and control strategies of COVID-19 risks in long-term care facilities, this paper uses the prospect theory to construct the decision-making model of COVID-19 risk behavior of long-term care facilities, analyses the risk behavior strategies of the caregivers and managers, and reveals the impact of risk management cost, risk loss and external supervision on the risk behavior decision-making of the caregivers and managers. Furthermore, from the perspective of long-term care facilities, this paper analyzes the constraints that enable it to achieve optimal risk management strategy. Combined with the simulation analysis, it is found that the decision of risk behavior of the caregivers and managers is positively related to the risk behavior choice, risk loss, and supervision. Then, only when the incentives set by the supervision are within a reasonable range can the caregivers and managers be motivated to take proactive risk management strategies. The study has important theoretical and practical significance for the management of COVID-19 risks in long-term care facilities.
鉴于当前新冠疫情风险的复杂性和不确定性，长期护理机构中的老年人感染风险最高。为研究长期护理机构新冠疫情风险防控策略，本文运用前景理论构建长期护理机构新冠疫情风险行为决策模型，分析照护者和管理者的风险行为策略，揭示风险管理成本、风险损失及外部监管对照护者和管理者风险行为决策的影响。此外，本文从长期护理机构角度分析其实现最优风险管理策略的制约因素。结合仿真分析发现，照护者和管理者的风险行为决策与风险行为选择、风险损失及监管呈正相关。那么，只有当监管设定的激励在合理范围内时，照护者和管理者才会有动力采取积极的风险管理策略。该研究对长期护理机构新冠疫情风险管理具有重要的理论和现实意义。
