Peng Min, Zhang Jianing, Gong Jingrui, Ran Xingqi, Liu Jvlu, Zhang Lin
School of Science, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876, China.
J Saf Sci Resil. 2022 Sep;3(3):229-234. doi: 10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.03.005. Epub 2022 May 10.
COVID-19 is a constantly challenging global health issue due to its strong intensity, rapid mutation and high infectiousness. The new Delta and Omicron variants have triggered massive outbreaks worldwide. Even China, which has done a good job in outbreak prevention, is still heavily affected by the virus. The long-term fight against multiple COVID-19 outbreaks is ongoing. In this study, we propose an SEIQR model that considers the incubation period and quarantine measurement. We verified our model using actual outbreak data from four Chinese cities. Numerical simulations show that a five-day delay results in a double resurgence scale. Our model can be used as a tool to understand the spread of the virus quantitatively and provide a reference for policymaking accordingly.
由于其强大的强度、快速变异和高传染性，新冠疫情一直是一个极具挑战性的全球健康问题。新的德尔塔和奥密克戎变种在全球引发了大规模疫情爆发。即使是在疫情防控方面做得很好的中国，也仍受到该病毒的严重影响。针对多次新冠疫情爆发的长期斗争仍在继续。在本研究中，我们提出了一个考虑潜伏期和隔离措施的SEIQR模型。我们使用中国四个城市的实际疫情数据对我们的模型进行了验证。数值模拟表明，五天的延迟会导致疫情复发规模翻倍。我们的模型可作为定量了解病毒传播的工具，并据此为政策制定提供参考。
