Cui Ziwei, Cai Ming, Xiao Yao, Zhu Zheng, Chen Gongbo
School of Intelligent System Engineering, Shenzhen Campus of Sun Yat-Sen University, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China.
College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China.
J Build Eng. 2023 Apr 1;64:105706. doi: 10.1016/j.jobe.2022.105706. Epub 2022 Dec 10.
Public facilities are important transmission places for respiratory infectious diseases (e.g., COVID-19), due to the frequent crowd interactions inside. Usually, changes of obstacle factors can affect the movements of human crowds and result in different epidemic transmissions among individuals. However, most related studies only focus on the specific scenarios, but the common rules are usually ignored for the impacts of obstacles' spatial elements on epidemic transmission. To tackle these problems, this study aims to evaluate the impacts of three spatial factors of obstacles (i.e., size, quantity, and placement) on infection spreading trends in two-dimension, which can provide scientific and concise spatial design guidelines for indoor public places. , we used the obstacle area proportion as the indicator of the size factor, gave the mathematical expression of the quantity factor, and proposed the walkable-space distribution indicator to represent the placement factor by introducing the Space Syntax. , two spreading epidemic indicators (i.e., daily new cases and people's average exposure risk) were estimated based on the fundamental model named exposure risk with the virion-laden particles, which accurately forecasted the disease spreading between individuals. , 120 indoor scenarios were built and simulated, based on which the value of independent and dependent variables can be measured. Besides, structural equation modeling was employed to examine the effects of obstacle factors on epidemic transmissions. , three obstacle-related guidelines were provided for policymakers to mitigate the disease spreading: minimizing the size of obstacles, dividing the obstacle into more sub-ones, and placing obstacles evenly distributed in space.
公共设施是呼吸道传染病（如新型冠状病毒肺炎）的重要传播场所，因为其内部人群互动频繁。通常，障碍物因素的变化会影响人群的移动，导致个体间不同的疫情传播情况。然而，大多数相关研究仅关注特定场景，而障碍物空间要素对疫情传播的普遍规律通常被忽视。为解决这些问题，本研究旨在评估障碍物的三个空间因素（即大小、数量和布局）对二维空间中感染传播趋势的影响，可为室内公共场所提供科学、简洁的空间设计指导。我们将障碍物面积占比作为大小因素的指标，给出了数量因素的数学表达式，并通过引入空间句法提出了可步行空间分布指标来表示布局因素。基于名为“含病毒颗粒暴露风险”的基本模型，估计了两个传播疫情指标（即每日新增病例数和人群平均暴露风险），该模型准确预测了个体间的疾病传播情况。构建并模拟了120个室内场景，据此可测量自变量和因变量的值。此外，采用结构方程模型来检验障碍物因素对疫情传播的影响。为政策制定者提供了三条与障碍物相关的指导方针，以减轻疾病传播：最小化障碍物大小、将障碍物分成更多子障碍物以及将障碍物均匀分布在空间中。
