Ganjavi O, Schell B, Cachon J C, Porporino F
Percept Mot Skills. 1985 Aug;61(1):259-75. doi: 10.2466/pms.1985.61.1.259.
This project studied the effects of weather variables and size of the population on minor and major violence rates within six prisons in the Kingston, Ontario, Canada area from January, 1980 through December, 1983. While weather variables have been studied in relation to mood changes within the general population, this study was the first to analyze the impact of weather variables on rates of violence within the prison setting using forward inclusion multiple regression. Analysis showed that population size consistently appeared positively correlated with assaults on other inmates among the male medium-security prisoners during the summer months. In the summer months, temperature tended to be positively related to some minor kinds of offenses, but in the winter months the relationship was negative. Humidity, rain, sunshine hours, snow, and snow on the ground were not consistently related to incidences of minor and major violence. Indices of geomagnetic disturbances had statistically significant inverse relationships with attempted suicide/self-inflicted injury rates among the male prisoners during the summer months. Over 12 months, wind was generally negatively correlated with incidences of major and minor violence among the male inmates. For 6-mo. periods, wind was generally positively correlated with violence rates during the winter months and negatively correlated during the summer months among the male inmates. The findings relating weather variables to violence rates in the women's prison were consistently in opposition to those found for male prisoners during the 4-yr. period.
本项目研究了1980年1月至1983年12月期间,天气变量和人口规模对加拿大安大略省金斯敦地区六所监狱内轻微和严重暴力犯罪率的影响。虽然已经对天气变量与普通人群情绪变化的关系进行了研究,但本研究是首次使用向前逐步回归分析法来分析天气变量对监狱环境中暴力犯罪率的影响。分析表明,在夏季,男性中等安全级别的囚犯中,人口规模始终与对其他囚犯的攻击行为呈正相关。在夏季,气温往往与一些轻微犯罪呈正相关,但在冬季则呈负相关。湿度、降雨、日照时长、降雪以及地面积雪与轻微和严重暴力犯罪的发生率并无一致的关联。地磁干扰指数与夏季男性囚犯中的自杀未遂/自残率呈统计学上的显著负相关。在12个月的时间里,风力通常与男性囚犯中轻微和严重暴力犯罪的发生率呈负相关。在6个月的时间段内,风力通常与冬季男性囚犯的暴力犯罪率呈正相关,而与夏季呈负相关。在4年的时间里,将天气变量与女子监狱暴力犯罪率相关联的研究结果始终与男性囚犯的研究结果相反。