Sun Yang, Chu Hongyang
College of Physical Education and Health Science, Chongqing Normal University, Chongqing City, 401331, China.
Sports Training College, Tianjin University of Sport, Tianjin City, 301617, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jun 6;15(1):19875. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-91870-8.
The precise prediction of football match outcomes holds significant value in the sports domain. However, traditional prediction methods are limited by data complexity and model capabilities, struggling to meet the demands for high accuracy. Quantum neural networks (QNNs) leverage the unique quantum properties of quantum bits (qubits) such as superposition and entanglement. They have enhanced information processing capabilities and potential pattern mining abilities when dealing with vast, high-dimensional, and complex football match data. This makes QNNs a superior choice compared to traditional neural networks and other advanced models for football match prediction. This study focuses on a deep learning (DL)-based QNN model, aiming to construct and optimize this model to analyze historical football match data for high-precision predictions of future match outcomes. Specifically, detailed match records from 2008 to 2022 of major European football leagues were obtained from the "European Football Database" public dataset on Kaggle. The data includes various factors such as match outcomes, team information, player stats, and match venues. The data are cleaned, standardized, and feature-engineered to meet the input requirements of neural network models. A multilayer perceptron model consisting of an input layer, multiple hidden layers, and an output layer is designed and implemented. During the model training phase, gradient descent is used to optimize weight parameters, and quantum algorithms are integrated to continuously adjust network weights to minimize prediction errors. The model is trained, parameter tuning is completed, and performance is evaluated using the training, validation, and independent test sets. The model's effectiveness is measured using indicators such as F1 score, accuracy, and recall. The study results indicate that the optimized QNN model significantly outperforms other advanced models in prediction accuracy. The optimized QNN model has an improvement of more than 20.5% in precision, an enhancement of over 23.2% in recall, and an increase of over 22.3% and 21.8% in accuracy and F1 score. Additionally, the model predicts the championship probabilities for Spain, France, England, and the Netherlands in the European Championship as 31.72%, 27.61%, 22.58%, and 18.09%, respectively. This study innovatively applies the optimized QNN model to outcome prediction in football matches, validating its effectiveness in the sports prediction field. It provides new ideas and methods for football match outcome prediction while offering valuable references for developing prediction models for other sports events. By integrating public data with DL technology, this study lays the foundation for the practical application of sports data analysis and prediction models, holding significant theoretical and practical value. Furthermore, future research can further explore the integration of QNN models with mathematical analysis systems, expanding their application scenarios in the real world. For example, sports betting agencies are provided with more accurate risk assessments, assisting teams in formulating more scientific tactical strategies, and optimizing event organization arrangements, to fully leverage their potential value.
足球比赛结果的精确预测在体育领域具有重要价值。然而,传统预测方法受数据复杂性和模型能力的限制,难以满足高精度的要求。量子神经网络(QNN)利用量子比特(qubit)的独特量子特性,如叠加和纠缠。在处理海量、高维和复杂的足球比赛数据时,它们具有增强的信息处理能力和潜在的模式挖掘能力。这使得QNN与传统神经网络和其他先进模型相比,成为足球比赛预测的更优选择。本研究聚焦于基于深度学习(DL)的QNN模型,旨在构建并优化该模型,以分析历史足球比赛数据,对未来比赛结果进行高精度预测。具体而言,从Kaggle上的“欧洲足球数据库”公共数据集中获取了2008年至2022年欧洲主要足球联赛的详细比赛记录。数据包括比赛结果、球队信息、球员数据和比赛场地等各种因素。对数据进行清理、标准化和特征工程处理,以满足神经网络模型的输入要求。设计并实现了一个由输入层、多个隐藏层和输出层组成的多层感知器模型。在模型训练阶段,使用梯度下降优化权重参数,并集成量子算法不断调整网络权重,以最小化预测误差。使用训练集、验证集和独立测试集对模型进行训练、完成参数调整并评估性能。使用F1分数、准确率和召回率等指标衡量模型的有效性。研究结果表明,优化后的QNN模型在预测准确率方面显著优于其他先进模型。优化后的QNN模型在精确率上提高了20.5%以上,召回率提高了23.2%以上,准确率和F1分数分别提高了22.3%和21.8%以上。此外,该模型预测西班牙、法国、英国和荷兰在欧洲杯中的夺冠概率分别为31.72%、27.61%、22.58%和18.09%。本研究创新性地将优化后的QNN模型应用于足球比赛结果预测,验证了其在体育预测领域的有效性。它为足球比赛结果预测提供了新的思路和方法,同时为其他体育赛事预测模型的开发提供了有价值的参考。通过将公共数据与深度学习技术相结合,本研究为体育数据分析和预测模型的实际应用奠定了基础,具有重要的理论和实践价值。此外,未来研究可以进一步探索QNN模型与数学分析系统的集成,扩展其在现实世界中的应用场景。例如,为体育博彩机构提供更准确的风险评估,协助球队制定更科学的战术策略,优化赛事组织安排,以充分发挥其潜在价值。