Findlay Helen S, Feely Richard A, Jiang Li-Qing, Pelletier Greg, Bednaršek Nina
Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, UK.
NOAA/OAR Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, USA.
Glob Chang Biol. 2025 Jun;31(6):e70238. doi: 10.1111/gcb.70238.
Ocean acidification has been identified in the Planetary Boundary Framework as a planetary process approaching a boundary that could lead to unacceptable environmental change. Using revised estimates of pre-industrial aragonite saturation state, state-of-the-art data-model products, including uncertainties and assessing impact on ecological indicators, we improve upon the ocean acidification planetary boundary assessment and demonstrate that by 2020, the average global ocean conditions had already crossed into the uncertainty range of the ocean acidification boundary. This analysis was further extended to the subsurface ocean, revealing that up to 60% of the global subsurface ocean (down to 200 m) had crossed that boundary, compared to over 40% of the global surface ocean. These changes result in significant declines in suitable habitats for important calcifying species, including 43% reduction in habitat for tropical and subtropical coral reefs, up to 61% for polar pteropods, and 13% for coastal bivalves. By including these additional considerations, we suggest a revised boundary of 10% reduction from pre-industrial conditions more adequately prevents risk to marine ecosystems and their services; a benchmark which was surpassed by year 2000 across the entire surface ocean.
在“行星边界框架”中，海洋酸化已被认定为一种正接近可能导致不可接受的环境变化的边界的行星过程。我们使用工业化前霰石饱和度状态的修订估计值、包括不确定性的最新数据模型产品，并评估其对生态指标的影响，改进了海洋酸化行星边界评估，结果表明，到2020年，全球海洋平均状况已进入海洋酸化边界的不确定性范围。该分析进一步扩展至海洋次表层，结果显示，全球海洋次表层（深度达200米）中高达60%已越过该边界，而全球海洋表层的这一比例超过40%。这些变化导致重要钙化物种的适宜栖息地大幅减少，包括热带和亚热带珊瑚礁栖息地减少43%，极地翼足类动物减少多达61%，沿海双壳贝类减少13%。通过纳入这些额外因素，我们建议将工业化前状况下降低10%作为修订后的边界，这能更充分地预防对海洋生态系统及其服务功能的风险；而这一基准在2000年时就已被整个海洋表层超越。
