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回应:非参数识别是不够的,但随机对照试验是足够的。

Rejoinder: Nonparametric identification is not enough, but randomized controlled trials are.

作者信息

Aronow P M, Robins James M, Saarinen Theo, Sävje Fredrik, Sekhon Jasjeet S

机构信息

Department of Statistics and Data Science Yale University.

Department of Political Science Yale University.

出版信息

Obs Stud. 2025 Apr 11;11(1):85-90. doi: 10.1353/obs.2025.a956844. eCollection 2025.

Abstract

We thank the editor for organizing a diverse and wide-ranging discussion, and we thank the commentators for their detailed and thoughtful remarks. Most of the commentators provide broader perspectives on randomized experiments and their role in modern empirical practice. We believe this broader perspective is important, and the comments serve as complements to the somewhat narrow points we made in our paper. However, we believe these narrow points are of great consequence, and we find it useful to briefly recapitulate them here. When a practitioner aims to estimate averages of bounded potential outcomes (e.g., the average treatment effect on a binary outcome) in a setting where both ignorability and positivity are known to hold after adjusting for at least one continuous covariate, the following statements are true: • If the propensity score is known, such as in a randomized controlled trial (RCT), there exist simple estimators that are uniformly root-n consistent and asymptotically normal. Confidence intervals based on these estimators are finite-sample valid and their widths shrink at a root-n rate. • If the propensity score is not known, such as in an observational study, there exist neither uniformly consistent estimators nor uniform (i.e., honest) large-sample confidence intervals whose widths are shrinking with the sample size. To achieve these properties, the practitioner must impose untestable assumptions on either the propensity score function or the conditional expectation function of the outcomes.

摘要

我们感谢编辑组织了一场多样且广泛的讨论,也感谢评论者们给出的详细且深刻的评论。大多数评论者对随机试验及其在现代实证实践中的作用提供了更广阔的视角。我们认为这种更广阔的视角很重要,这些评论对我们在论文中提出的有些狭隘的观点起到了补充作用。然而,我们认为这些狭隘的观点具有重大意义,在此简要重述一下很有必要。当从业者旨在估计在调整至少一个连续协变量后已知可忽略性和正性均成立的情况下有界潜在结果的均值(例如,二元结果上的平均治疗效果)时,以下陈述是正确的:

• 如果倾向得分已知,比如在随机对照试验(RCT)中,存在简单的估计量,它们是一致的根n相合且渐近正态的。基于这些估计量的置信区间在有限样本下是有效的,并且其宽度以根n速率收缩。

• 如果倾向得分未知,比如在观察性研究中,既不存在一致的估计量,也不存在宽度随样本量收缩的一致(即诚实的)大样本置信区间。为了实现这些性质,从业者必须对倾向得分函数或结果的条件期望函数施加不可检验的假设。

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