Estimating the effect of contact tracing during the early stage of an epidemic.

Contact tracing is an important public health measure to control disease transmission. However, it is difficult to assess contact tracing during the exponential stage of an epidemic with multiple control measures, because the exponential growth rate is influenced by all measures. We present new SEIR and SEAIR contact tracing models that track contacts in randomly mixed populations, and calibrate them to simulated epidemic curves to determine the data that allow us to assess the effect of contact tracing. We find that new-case counts, counts of cases identified by contact tracing (or voluntary tests), and counts of symptomatic onset are necessary to identify model parameters and evaluate the effect of contact tracing. We fit our contact tracing models to COVID-19 pandemic data in Ontario, Canada, during March 16-May 1, 2020. Our results show that approximately 29% of cases were identified via contact tracing of close contacts. Contact tracing moderately reduces the control reproduction number by about 25%, but significantly reduces the prevalence by more than half. Ignoring asymptomatic transmissions gives similar estimates for the effect of contact tracing, but significantly underestimates the prevalence.