Rowthorn Robert, Maciejowski Jan
Emeritus Professor of Economics, University of Cambridge.
Emeritus Professor of Control Engineering, University of Cambridge.
Oxf Rev Econ Policy. 2020 Aug 29:graa030. doi: 10.1093/oxrep/graa030.
The British government has been debating how to escape from the lockdown without provoking a resurgence of the COVID-19 disease. There is a growing recognition of the damage the lockdown has caused to economic and social life. This paper presents a simple cost-benefit analysis inspired by optimal control theory and incorporating the SIR model of disease propagation. It also reports simulations informed by the theoretical discussion. The optimal path for government intervention is computed under a variety of conditions. These include a cap on the permitted level of infection to avoid overload of the health system, and the introduction of a test and trace system. We quantify the benefits of early intervention to control the disease. We also examine how the government's valuation of life influences the optimal path. A 10-week lockdown is only optimal if the value of life for COVID-19 victims exceeds £10m. The study is based on a standard but simple epidemiological model, and should therefore be regarded as presenting a methodological framework rather than giving policy prescriptions.
英国政府一直在讨论如何在不引发新冠疫情卷土重来的情况下摆脱封锁措施。人们越来越认识到封锁对经济和社会生活造成的损害。本文提出了一种受最优控制理论启发并纳入疾病传播SIR模型的简单成本效益分析。文中还报告了基于理论讨论的模拟结果。在各种条件下计算了政府干预的最优路径。这些条件包括对允许的感染水平设定上限以避免卫生系统不堪重负，以及引入检测和追踪系统。我们量化了早期干预控制疾病的益处。我们还研究了政府对生命的估值如何影响最优路径。只有当新冠疫情受害者的生命价值超过1000万英镑时，为期10周的封锁才是最优选择。该研究基于一个标准但简单的流行病学模型，因此应被视为提供了一个方法框架，而非给出政策建议。
