Fu Yuting, Jin Hanqing, Xiang Haitao, Wang Ning
Oxford Nie Financial Big Data Laboratory, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Financ Res Lett. 2022 Mar;45:102123. doi: 10.1016/j.frl.2021.102123. Epub 2021 May 14.
As the COVID-19 spreads across the world, many nations impose lockdown measures at the early stage of the pandemic to prevent the spread of the disease. Controversy surrounds the lockdown as it is a choice between economic freedom and public health. The ultimate solution to a pandemic is to vaccinate a massive population to achieve herd immunity. However, the whole vaccination programme is a long and complicated process. The virus and the vaccine will coexist for quite a long time. How to gradually ease the lockdown based on vaccination progress is an important question, as both economic and epidemiological issues are involved. In this paper, we extend the classic SIR model to find optimal decision to balance between economy and public health in the process of vaccination rollout. The model provides an approach of vaccine value estimation. Our results provide scientific suggestion for policymakers to make important decisions on how to gradually relax the strength for the lockdown over the entire vaccination cycle.
随着新冠病毒在全球蔓延，许多国家在疫情初期实施封锁措施以防止疾病传播。围绕封锁存在争议，因为这是经济自由和公共卫生之间的抉择。应对大流行的最终解决方案是为大量人群接种疫苗以实现群体免疫。然而，整个疫苗接种计划是一个漫长而复杂的过程。病毒和疫苗将在相当长的时间内共存。如何根据疫苗接种进展逐步放宽封锁是一个重要问题，因为这涉及经济和流行病学两方面的问题。在本文中，我们扩展了经典的SIR模型，以找到在疫苗接种推广过程中平衡经济和公共卫生的最优决策。该模型提供了一种疫苗价值评估方法。我们的结果为政策制定者在整个疫苗接种周期内如何逐步放松封锁力度做出重要决策提供了科学建议。
