The Effects of Climate Change on Mesocarnivores: A Global Review and Meta-Analysis.

Climate change is a major threat to biodiversity, affecting a wide range of species in different ecological networks. Higher trophic level species, such as mesocarnivores, are particularly affected due to bottom-up and top-down cascading effects. The magnitude of climate change impacts on mesocarnivores may vary between regions and taxonomic groups, but this variation is poorly understood. We reviewed 119 articles on the effects of climate change on mesocarnivores (Order Carnivora). We found an increase in studies of climate change effects over time, with canids and mustelids being the most studied carnivores, and herpestids, procyonids, viverrids and ailurids being the least studied. Most of the identified studies were from Europe, followed by North and South America. Africa and Oceania had fewer published studies. The most common approach to assessing the impact of climate change on carnivores was based on the study of species spatial ecology and habitat use, but also on population and community ecology. We used 21 of those articles that used ecological niche modelling to assess future distribution changes as the basis for our meta-analysis. Our results show that although some habitat generalists, mainly canids and procyonids, with a wide range of habitats may benefit from climate change, most mesocarnivores are likely to experience range contractions. However, this general pattern varies among carnivore families. Species from arid environments, as well as those that are specialists in montane and tropical forests, are likely to experience the largest declines in range. This is especially true for species from Africa, Asia and South America, as these regions are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Our study highlights that climate change affects carnivores in different ways and that there is also regional variation in impacts; therefore, conservation efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change should be tailored to each continent and species.