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沉积物政策与气候政策对新西兰农业的共同影响。

Co-effects of sediment and climate policies on agriculture in New Zealand.

作者信息

Djanibekov Utkur, Walsh Patrick J, Soliman Tarek

机构信息

Research Group Economic Modelling and Policy Analysis, Agroscope, Tänikon 1, Ettenhausen, 8356, Switzerland.

US EPA, National Center for Environmental Economics, Washington, DC, USA.

出版信息

J Environ Manage. 2025 Apr;379:124845. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124845. Epub 2025 Mar 10.

Abstract

Sediment mitigation policies are closely linked with other agri-environmental policies and practices that control sedimentation can have impacts to a range of ecosystem services. It is therefore critical to understand the synergies and tradeoffs between sediment and other policies. Our case study is New Zealand, since it has an established emissions trading scheme and other climate and sediment policies. This paper employs an economic simulation model and non-market valuation techniques to explore the benefits and costs of sediment and climate policies in the form of payments for carbon sequestration in afforestation, highlighting the role of climate policy and its cascading effect on sediment reduction and other environmental impacts. We simulate a national sediment policy under different carbon prices and analyse the resulting impacts on water quality, greenhouse gasses, carbon sequestration, and agricultural incomes. Results indicate that the magnitude of the sediment outputs and agricultural incomes are strongly affected by climate policy, stressing the importance of jointly considering overlapping agri-environmental policies. Without climate policy, sediment loads reduce by 13.2% from the baseline, while having payments of $10/tCOe for carbon sequestration in afforestation reduces sediment loads by 68.7% due to increase in afforestation area. In addition, agricultural incomes reduce without climate policy. Agricultural incomes become larger than in the baseline when having joint sediment and climate policies with a carbon price of $25/tCOe and considering environmental benefits. However, marginal increase in afforestation area and incomes, and marginal decrease in sediment loads diminish with higher carbon prices.

摘要

沉积物缓解政策与其他农业环境政策紧密相连,控制沉积物的措施可能会对一系列生态系统服务产生影响。因此,了解沉积物政策与其他政策之间的协同效应和权衡至关重要。我们的案例研究对象是新西兰,因为该国已建立了排放交易计划以及其他气候和沉积物政策。本文运用经济模拟模型和非市场估值技术,以造林碳固存支付的形式探讨沉积物和气候政策的收益与成本,突出气候政策的作用及其对减少沉积物和其他环境影响的级联效应。我们模拟了不同碳价格下的国家沉积物政策,并分析其对水质、温室气体、碳固存和农业收入的影响。结果表明,沉积物产出量和农业收入的规模受到气候政策的强烈影响,这凸显了共同考虑重叠的农业环境政策的重要性。没有气候政策时,沉积物负荷比基线减少13.2%,而造林碳固存支付为每吨二氧化碳当量10美元时,由于造林面积增加,沉积物负荷减少68.7%。此外,没有气候政策时农业收入会减少。当联合实施沉积物和气候政策且碳价格为每吨二氧化碳当量25美元并考虑环境效益时,农业收入会高于基线水平。然而,随着碳价格升高,造林面积和收入的边际增加以及沉积物负荷的边际减少会逐渐减小。

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