Global, regional, and national burden of gastritis and duodenitis from 1990 to 2021 with projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Gastritis and duodenitis are highly prevalent upper gastrointestinal inflammatory conditions. We estimate the most up-to-date global, regional, and national burden in incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for gastritis and duodenitis from 1990 to 2021 with projections to 2050. Population-based data in this study was retrieved from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021). We evaluated the temporal trends of age-standardized rates of gastritis and duodenitis prevalence (ASPR), incidence (ASIR), mortality (ASMR), and DALYs (ASDR) across 204 countries and territories, as well as estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) from 1990 to 2021. Analyses were stratified by sex, age subgroup, socio-demographic index (SDI) at the global, regional, and national level. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was employed to project ASPR and ASDR of gastritis and duodenitis by sex and age up to 2050. In 2021, 27.20 million (95% UI: 21.85-33.65) individuals globally had gastritis and duodenitis, with an ASIR of 323.24 (95% UI: 261.35-398.64) per 100,000. Globally, the prevalent cases of gastritis and duodenitis in 2021 was higher in females than in males and increased with age, peaking at the fifth decade of life. The number of prevalent cases of gastritis and duodenitis is projected to reach approximately 51.24 million by 2050. In 2021, gastritis and duodenitis caused 2.81 (95% UI: 2.17-3.61) million DALYs worldwide, with an ASDR of 35.64 (95% UI: 27.56-45.77) per 100,000, while the ASMR was 0.54 (95% UI: 0.47-0.62) per 100,000. Despite global decreases in ASPR and ASIR, increasing trends were observed in the low and low-middle SDI regions from 1990 to 2021. The low SDI regions exhibited the highest ASDR of 63.44 (95% UI: 44.08-87.16) per 100,000. Among 21 GBD regions, East Asia exhibited the highest ASPR and ASIR in 2021. The ASPR of gastritis and duodenitis in 2050 is forecast to be 402.14 per 100,000, with an ASDR of approximately 22.09 per 100,000. Despite global reductions in ASPR, ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR between 1990 and 2021, the global burden of gastritis and duodenitis exhibits regional disparities, closely linked to SDI levels. The highest burden of gastritis and duodenitis was observed in East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. More potent measures are urgently needed in low SDI regions to forestall the increase of Gastritis and duodenitis burden.