Global, regional, and national burden of cancers attributable to particulate matter pollution from 1990 to 2019 and projection to 2050: Worsening or improving?

Particulate matter pollution (PMP) has been identified as a substantial contributor to cancer. However, accurately delineating the evolving trends in cancer burden attributable to PMP remains an ongoing challenge. The 1990-2019 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were used for cancers attributable to PMP from the Global Burden and Disease Study (GBD) 2019, including ambient particulate matter pollution (APMP) and household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP). The joinpoint regression and the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model were employed to assess the corresponding trends over the periods 1990-2019 and 2020-2050, respectively. Additionally, statistical models such as frontier analysis and health inequality analysis were also utilized. During the 30-year period, cancer DALYs attributable to APMP increased globally, while those attributable to HAP and PMP decreased. Cancer DALYs attributable to APMP were positively correlated with socio-demographic index (SDI), while those attributable to PMP and HAP were negatively correlated with SDI. Frontier analysis identified the countries and regions requiring urgent action to mitigate PMP-attributable cancer. Finally, it was anticipated that the cancer burden attributable to APMP would increase during 2020 to 2050, while the burden attributable to HAP and PMP would decrease. This study conducted an epidemiological investigation of the burden of cancer attributable to APMP, HAP and PMP in various regions and populations worldwide, providing epidemiological insights into the global burden of cancer attributable to PMP and guiding policy and research directions.