Smith-Greenaway Emily
University of Southern California.
Popul Stud (Camb). 2025 Jun 18:1-10. doi: 10.1080/00324728.2025.2506464.
Demographers have long suspected that ordinary people in societies experiencing rapid demographic transition face difficulties in perceiving mortality decline. Recent empirical accounts have supported this supposition, demonstrating the extent of misperceptions in select transitioning societies and examining the individual life-course experiences that predate them. Yet, the broader significance of individuals misperceiving the presence or degree of mortality decline remains unclear. This paper examines whether individuals' perceptions of mortality conditions are systematically related to their perceptions of modern healthcare, as the old hypothesis suggested. Using data from the Tsogolo la Thanzi study of women in Balaka, Malawi-a context where mortality has declined dramatically alongside the expansion of modern healthcare-this study assesses whether a pessimistic outlook on mortality corresponds with scepticism of modern healthcare. The results emphasize the continued need for demographic research that grapples with individuals' perceptions of mortality decline, given the broader salience of perceptions to population health matters.
长期以来，人口统计学家一直怀疑，在经历快速人口结构转变的社会中，普通人在认识到死亡率下降方面存在困难。最近的实证研究支持了这一假设，揭示了特定转型社会中误解的程度，并考察了导致这些误解的个人生命历程经历。然而，个人误判死亡率下降的存在或程度的更广泛意义仍不明确。正如过去的假设所表明的那样，本文探讨了个人对死亡状况的认知是否与他们对现代医疗保健的认知存在系统关联。本研究利用来自马拉维巴拉卡的Tsogolo la Thanzi妇女研究的数据——在这一背景下，随着现代医疗保健的扩展，死亡率大幅下降——评估对死亡率的悲观看法是否与对现代医疗保健的怀疑态度相对应。鉴于认知对人口健康问题具有更广泛的重要性，研究结果强调了人口统计学研究持续关注个人对死亡率下降认知的必要性。
