Zhang Xiaomeng, Guo Manru, Song Xuefei, Abdalla Abualgasim Elgaili, Wang Guirong, Xie Longxiang
School of Basic Medical Sciences, Henan University, Kaifeng, China.
Inner Mongolia Fourth Hospital, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, P.R. China.
Int J Surg. 2025 Sep 1;111(9):6050-6062. doi: 10.1097/JS9.0000000000002720. Epub 2025 Jun 20.
The study was to elucidate a comprehensive view of the burden of tuberculosis (TB) from different dimensions.
Data were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease 2021. We provided a comprehensive overview of all relevant measures and the associated age-standardized rates per 100 000 (ASR) across BRICS countries. And we analyzed risk factors contributed to TB-related deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Additionally, temporal trends in the disease were delineated using a joinpoint regression model, while projections over the subsequent 15 years were generated using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.
The global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) was 103 per 100 000 in 2021, which represented a 40.5% decrease since 1990. Notably, ASIR in China experienced a significant decline of 66.7%. Individuals aged 65 and above were high-risk group for TB. For the Russian Federation, the percentages of deaths and DALYs caused by multidrug-resistant tuberculosis and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis were approximately 30% and 14% respectively in 2021. Although DS-TB still accounted for the highest proportion of about 55%, it was significantly lower in contrast to other countries, where the rate reached over 80%. And the gradual downward trends of ASIR and ASMR are expected to continue over the period from 2021 to 2036.
The results indicated that the burden of TB in BRICS countries has decreased over the past 30 years. It highlights an urgent requirement to develop and implement relevant strategies in the prevention and control of TB based on country-specific development status.
本研究旨在从不同维度阐明结核病负担的全面情况。
数据来源于《2021年全球疾病负担》。我们全面概述了金砖国家所有相关指标以及每10万人的年龄标准化率（ASR）。并且我们分析了导致结核病相关死亡和伤残调整生命年（DALY）的风险因素。此外，使用连接点回归模型描绘了该疾病的时间趋势，同时使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型生成了未来15年的预测数据。
2021年全球年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）为每10万人103例，自1990年以来下降了40.5%。值得注意的是，中国的ASIR显著下降了66.7%。65岁及以上人群是结核病的高危群体。对于俄罗斯联邦，2021年耐多药结核病和广泛耐药结核病导致的死亡和DALY百分比分别约为30%和14%。尽管DS-TB仍占最高比例，约为55%，但与其他国家相比显著较低，其他国家这一比例超过80%。预计2021年至2036年期间，ASIR和ASMR将继续呈逐渐下降趋势。
结果表明，过去30年金砖国家的结核病负担有所下降。这凸显了迫切需要根据各国具体发展状况制定和实施结核病防控相关策略。
