Comprehensive analysis of tuberculosis burden trends and attributable risk factors in the BRICS countries from 1990 to 2021, with forecasts for the next 15 years.

BACKGROUND

The study was to elucidate a comprehensive view of the burden of tuberculosis (TB) from different dimensions.

METHODS

Data were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease 2021. We provided a comprehensive overview of all relevant measures and the associated age-standardized rates per 100 000 (ASR) across BRICS countries. And we analyzed risk factors contributed to TB-related deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Additionally, temporal trends in the disease were delineated using a joinpoint regression model, while projections over the subsequent 15 years were generated using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

RESULTS

The global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) was 103 per 100 000 in 2021, which represented a 40.5% decrease since 1990. Notably, ASIR in China experienced a significant decline of 66.7%. Individuals aged 65 and above were high-risk group for TB. For the Russian Federation, the percentages of deaths and DALYs caused by multidrug-resistant tuberculosis and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis were approximately 30% and 14% respectively in 2021. Although DS-TB still accounted for the highest proportion of about 55%, it was significantly lower in contrast to other countries, where the rate reached over 80%. And the gradual downward trends of ASIR and ASMR are expected to continue over the period from 2021 to 2036.

CONCLUSIONS

The results indicated that the burden of TB in BRICS countries has decreased over the past 30 years. It highlights an urgent requirement to develop and implement relevant strategies in the prevention and control of TB based on country-specific development status.