Jing Xiaohan, Wang Yuan, Zhang Yuchen, Li Fan, Tian Di, Zhang Feilong, Chen Yuting, Wu Ye
Department of Social Medicine and Health Service Management, School of Health Management, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China.
Department of Medical Service, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China.
Global Spine J. 2025 Jun 20:21925682251352847. doi: 10.1177/21925682251352847.
Study DesignEco-epidemiological study.ObjectiveAnalysis the spatial-temporal trends in neck pain burden among young people at global, regional, and national levels.MethodsData on neck pain among youth from 1990 to 2021 was sourced from the Global Burden Disease (GBD) 2021 database. This research delineated the evolving trends in neck pain burden by comparing various regions and timeframes, employing the age-period-cohort (APC) model to assess the factors effects on neck pain burden. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was utilized to forecast the global burden of neck pain among youth by 2050s.ResultsAlthough the global burden of neck pain shows a steady development trend, there is strong heterogeneity among regions. The burden was more severe in the females and high-middle Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) region. By APC model, the burden was found to increase with age, and the period effect showed an initial upward trend followed by a decline and rise final, although the relative risk remained above 1. The cohort effect indicated that the relative risks for global, higher SDI, initially decreased before rising, while the relative risks for low-middle SDI and low SDI regions have continued to increase over the years. Predictive modeling showed by 2050, the number of youth suffering from neck pain will continue.ConclusionsNeck pain remains an important health problem and poses a global public health challenge in the future, requiring prevention and control targeting key populations and regions.
研究设计 生态流行病学研究。 目的 分析全球、区域和国家层面年轻人颈部疼痛负担的时空趋势。 方法 1990年至2021年青少年颈部疼痛数据来源于全球疾病负担(GBD)2021数据库。本研究通过比较不同区域和时间框架,描绘颈部疼痛负担的演变趋势,采用年龄-时期-队列(APC)模型评估各因素对颈部疼痛负担的影响。利用自回归积分移动平均(ARIMA)模型预测2050年代全球青少年颈部疼痛负担。 结果 尽管全球颈部疼痛负担呈稳步发展趋势,但各区域之间存在很强的异质性。女性和高中社会人口指数(SDI)区域的负担更为严重。通过APC模型发现,负担随年龄增长而增加,时期效应呈先上升后下降再上升的趋势,尽管相对风险仍高于1。队列效应表明,全球、较高SDI的相对风险最初下降后上升,而中低SDI和低SDI区域的相对风险多年来持续上升。预测模型显示,到2050年,患有颈部疼痛的青少年人数将持续增加。 结论 颈部疼痛仍然是一个重要的健康问题,未来对全球公共卫生构成挑战,需要针对重点人群和区域进行预防和控制。
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