Xin Jingyi, Sun Zhaobin, He Juan, Hang Xiaoyi, Zhao Yuxin, Zhang Shuwen, Hao Yu
School of Traditional Chinese Medicine Beijing University of Chinese Medicine Beijing China.
State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LASW) Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS) China Meteorological Administration Beijing China.
Geohealth. 2025 Jun 22;9(6):e2025GH001386. doi: 10.1029/2025GH001386. eCollection 2025 Jun.
Droughts, historically recognized as drivers of societal transformation, have been implicated in the emergence of infectious diseases. While existing research has concentrated on the impact of climate change on infectious diseases outbreaks in modern, industrialized, and urban settings, there is a dearth of epidemiological evidence regarding the historical interplay between drought and disease. Here, we analyze the 1585-1590 extreme drought in Ming Dynasty China to investigate the concurrent development of drought and infectious diseases, as well as the temporal and spatial effects of drought on disease outbreaks. The findings reveal a positive correlation between drought and infectious diseases in both temporal and spatial dimensions, with famine identified as a critical intermediate factor. Drought's influence on famine and disease is both immediate and delayed, with the most significant effects occurring within the same year. Additionally, a north-to-south pattern in the occurrence of drought and infectious diseases is observed, with northern droughts more likely to precipitate disease outbreaks. These insights offer valuable perspectives for future strategies.
干旱在历史上被视为社会变革的驱动因素，也与传染病的出现有关。虽然现有研究集中在气候变化对现代、工业化和城市环境中传染病爆发的影响，但缺乏关于干旱与疾病历史相互作用的流行病学证据。在此，我们分析了中国明朝1585 - 1590年的极端干旱，以研究干旱与传染病的同时发展，以及干旱对疾病爆发的时空影响。研究结果揭示了干旱与传染病在时间和空间维度上的正相关关系，饥荒被确定为关键的中间因素。干旱对饥荒和疾病的影响既有即时性也有延迟性，最显著的影响发生在同一年。此外，观察到干旱和传染病发生存在从北到南的模式，北方干旱更有可能引发疾病爆发。这些见解为未来策略提供了有价值的观点。
