Pozzi Ottavio Barbara, Sousa Borges Stéfani, Santos da Costa Márcia Gisele, Caetano Kuschnir Maria Cristina
Master's Degree in Health Technology Assessment, National Institute of Cardiology, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and Ministry of Health, Brasília, Federal District, Brazil.
Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Brasília, Brasília, Federal District, Brazil.
PLoS One. 2025 Jun 24;20(6):e0326436. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0326436. eCollection 2025.
Diabetes is a significant public health issue due to its high prevalence and multifaceted consequences, impacting both the Brazilian Unified Health System and society. The disease adversely affects people's quality of life and elevates healthcare costs. In 2019, approximately 16 million Brazilians were diagnosed with diabetes mellitus. Understanding the future trends of this disease is crucial for planning effective preventive interventions. This paper aims to estimate the future prevalence type 2 diabetes mellitus on individuals from the Study of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Adolescents (ERICA) sample, based on the progression of their cardiovascular risk factors.
A literature review was conducted to identify predictive models for type 2 diabetes mellitus that utilize cardiovascular risk factors assessed during adolescence to forecast diabetes risk in adulthood. A logistic regression model, grounded in the natural history of clinical variables derived from longitudinal studies, was applied to each individual to determine their risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus. Additionally, probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were performed, incorporating the minimum and maximum values of model parameters.
The predictive model estimated that 15.12% of individuals in the ERICA sample are likely to develop type 2 diabetes mellitus in adulthood, with a range of 1.1% to 28% based on sensitivity analyses. The parameters exerting the most significant influence on these results included diastolic blood pressure and triglycerides, followed by LDL cholesterol and systolic blood pressure.
The application of this predictive model to the Study of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Adolescents (ERICA) sample indicates an estimated prevalence of 15.12% for T2DM over a 20.5-year follow-up period. Studies like this one provide valuable insights for designing targeted interventions to mitigate the progression of diabetes and its associated socioeconomic impacts.
糖尿病因其高患病率和多方面后果，成为一个重大的公共卫生问题，对巴西统一卫生系统和社会都产生了影响。该疾病对人们的生活质量产生不利影响，并增加了医疗成本。2019年，约1600万巴西人被诊断患有糖尿病。了解这种疾病的未来趋势对于规划有效的预防干预措施至关重要。本文旨在根据青少年心血管危险因素研究（ERICA）样本中个体的心血管危险因素进展情况，估计2型糖尿病的未来患病率。
进行了一项文献综述，以确定利用青少年时期评估的心血管危险因素来预测成年期糖尿病风险的2型糖尿病预测模型。将基于纵向研究得出的临床变量自然史的逻辑回归模型应用于每个个体，以确定其患2型糖尿病的风险。此外，进行了概率性和确定性敏感性分析，纳入了模型参数的最小值和最大值。
预测模型估计，ERICA样本中有15.12%的个体成年后可能患2型糖尿病，根据敏感性分析，这一比例在1.1%至28%之间。对这些结果影响最显著的参数包括舒张压和甘油三酯，其次是低密度脂蛋白胆固醇和收缩压。
将此预测模型应用于青少年心血管危险因素研究（ERICA）样本表明，在20.
