Pan Zhe, Xian Haocheng, Li Feng, Wang Ziyao, Li Zihan, Huang Yu, Liu Wenqing, Li Yiman, Li Fan, Wang Jinyuan, Chen Haichao, Wu Yilan, Xu Yueyuan, Wu Gangyue, Zhang Yang, He Lvfu, Zhang Jianping, Zhang Fangxia, Qian Xuehan, Zhang Xiuhong, Zhou Lianhong, Feng Yanqing, Li Li, He Xiangui, Xu Xun, Yang Jin, Zhou Xiyuan, Zhu Dan, Pan Chenwei, Ang Marcus, Saw Seang-Mei, Zheng Yingfeng, He Mingguang, Jonas Jost B, Bressler Neil M, Cheng Ching-Yu, Tham Yih-Chung, Zhang Chun, Wang Ya Xing, Wong Tien Yin
Beijing Visual Science and Translational Eye Research Institute (BERI), Beijing Tsinghua Changgung Hospital Eye Center, School of Clinical Medicine, Tsinghua Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Beijing Key Laboratory of Intelligent Diagnostic Technology and Devices for Major Blinding Eye Diseases, Tsinghua Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Lancet Reg Health West Pac. 2025 Jun 11;59:101577. doi: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2025.101577. eCollection 2025 Jun.
The global rise in myopia, particularly in Asia, presents significant public health challenges. Analyzing trends and forecasting impacts are critical for developing strategies to mitigate this burden.
We conducted the largest study to date on myopia and high myopia prevalence in Chinese children and adolescents aged 7-18 years, analyzing data from 5,095,256 individuals across 119 studies from 1998 to 2022. Data variability between cycloplegia and non-cycloplegia measurements was addressed using a distance-based model averaging calibration. Aggregated prevalence and age-specific urban-rural trends were estimated using thin plate spline regression, with projections to 2050 derived from time series modeling.
Myopia prevalence plateaued in 2006 in urban areas and in 2013 in rural areas, with the urban-rural prevalence gap narrowing since 2015 (urban/rural ratio below 1.3 for all ages). By 2050, myopia prevalence is projected to stabilize at 27.1% (95% CI: 10.0-44.4%) for ages 7-9 and 81.5% (74.7-88.3%) for ages 16-18 in urban areas, and at 20.1% (8.6-31.7%) and 74.1% (63.2-84.8%), respectively, in rural areas. High myopia prevalence among adolescents aged 16-18 is expected to rise from 7.3% in 2001 to 22.1% by 2050. Prevalence correlated significantly with the Human Development Index (P < 0.001).
Despite stabilization in overall myopia prevalence, the continued rise in high myopia underscores the need for targeted control measures. Projections emphasize the importance of addressing regional disparities and prioritizing public health interventions.
National Natural Science Foundation of China (#82271086; #82388101; #72495123).
全球近视率上升，尤其是在亚洲，这带来了重大的公共卫生挑战。分析趋势并预测影响对于制定减轻这一负担的策略至关重要。
我们开展了迄今为止关于中国7至18岁儿童和青少年近视及高度近视患病率的最大规模研究，分析了1998年至2022年来自119项研究的5,095,256名个体的数据。使用基于距离的模型平均校准来解决睫状肌麻痹和非睫状肌麻痹测量之间的数据变异性问题。使用薄板样条回归估计总体患病率和特定年龄的城乡趋势，并通过时间序列建模得出到2050年的预测。
城市地区近视患病率在2006年趋于平稳，农村地区在2013年趋于平稳，自2015年以来城乡患病率差距缩小（各年龄段城乡比率低于1.3）。到2050年，预计城市地区7至9岁儿童近视患病率将稳定在27.1%（95%置信区间：10.0 - 44.4%），16至18岁青少年近视患病率将稳定在81.5%（74.7 - 88.3%）；农村地区相应年龄段的近视患病率预计将分别稳定在20.1%（8.6 - 31.7%）和74.1%（63.2 - 84.8%）。16至18岁青少年的高度近视患病率预计将从2001年的7.3%上升到2050年的22.1%。患病率与人类发展指数显著相关（P < 0.001）。
尽管总体近视患病率趋于平稳，但高度近视的持续上升凸显了采取针对性控制措施的必要性。预测强调了应对地区差异和优先开展公共卫生干预措施的重要性。
中国国家自然科学基金（#82271086；#82388101；#72495123）
