Höner Oliver, Murr Dennis, Larkin Paul, Schreiner Robert, Leyhr Daniel
Institute of Sports Science, Eberhard Karls University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany.
Institute for Health and Sport, Victoria University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Front Sports Act Living. 2021 May 28;3:638227. doi: 10.3389/fspor.2021.638227. eCollection 2021.
Recent studies have provided empirical evidence on the prognostic relevance of objective performance diagnostics in the soccer talent identification and development process. However, little is known about the prognostic validity of coaches' subjective evaluations of performance. This study evaluated objective and subjective assessments within a nationwide talent development program and addressed motor, perceptual skill, and personality-related performance factors. Male players ( = 13,869; = 12.59 ± 1.07 years) from the age groups U12 to U15 of the German soccer talent development program participated in this study. Participants completed an objective motor diagnostic (sprint, agility, dribbling, ball control, juggling) and were subjectively rated by their coaches (kicking skills, endurance, individual tactical skills, psychosocial skills). All nine predictors were assessed with sufficient psychometric properties (α ≥ 0.72; except dribbling and ball control: α ≥ 0.53). Players' success three seasons later was operationalized by achieving professional youth academy level or not (success rate, 9%). Independent-samples -tests analyzed univariate mean group comparisons between future selected and non-selected players. Logistic regression models examined the multivariate prognostic validity of all assessments by predicting success with subjective (model 1), objective (model 2), and both groups of predictors (model 3). Confirming the univariate prognostic validity, future selected outperformed non-selected players regarding all predictors (each < 0.001, except for agility in U15: < 0.01). Tactical skills, kicking skills, and sprint were of highest predictive value ( ≥ 0.61 in each age group). Multivariate results provided empirical evidence for the subjective (7% ≤ Nagelkerke's ≤ 11%; each < 0.001) and objective (8% ≤ Nagelkerke's ≤ 13%; each < 0.001) assessments' prognostic validity. However, model 3 revealed the best statistical explanatory power in each age group (0.15 ≤ Nagelkerke's ≤ 0.20; < 0.001). In this combined assessment model, sprint, tactical skills, and dribbling were found to be the most predictive variables. In conclusion, this study reinforces the call for multidimensional diagnostics integrating objective and subjective assessments. Future research is needed to address the demands for longitudinal analyses of subjective ratings, the integration of biological maturation, and empirical evidence for female soccer.
最近的研究为客观表现诊断在足球人才识别与发展过程中的预后相关性提供了实证依据。然而，对于教练对表现的主观评估的预后有效性却知之甚少。本研究在一项全国性人才发展计划中评估了客观和主观评估，并涉及运动、感知技能和与个性相关的表现因素。来自德国足球人才发展计划U12至U15年龄组的男性球员（ = 13,869； = 12.59 ± 1.07岁）参与了本研究。参与者完成了一项客观运动诊断（短跑、敏捷性、运球、控球、颠球），并由他们的教练进行主观评分（踢球技巧、耐力、个人战术技巧、心理社会技能）。所有九个预测指标均具有足够的心理测量学特性（α≥0.72；运球和控球除外：α≥0.53）。通过是否达到职业青年学院水平来衡量球员三个赛季后的成功情况（成功率为9%）。独立样本 -检验分析了未来入选和未入选球员之间的单变量均值组比较。逻辑回归模型通过使用主观（模型1）、客观（模型2）以及两组预测指标（模型3）预测成功情况，检验了所有评估的多变量预后有效性。证实单变量预后有效性的是，在所有预测指标方面，未来入选球员的表现均优于未入选球员（每个指标 < 0.001，U15组的敏捷性指标除外： < 0.01）。战术技巧、踢球技巧和短跑的预测价值最高（每个年龄组≥0.61）。多变量结果为主观评估（7%≤Nagelkerke's ≤11%；每个指标 < 0.001）和客观评估（8%≤Nagelkerke's ≤13%；每个指标 < 0.001）的预后有效性提供了实证依据。然而，模型3在每个年龄组中显示出最佳的统计解释力（0.15≤Nagelkerke's ≤0.20； < 0.001）。在这个综合评估模型中，短跑、战术技巧和运球被发现是最具预测性的变量。总之，本研究强化了对整合客观和主观评估的多维诊断的呼吁。未来需要开展研究，以满足对主观评分进行纵向分析、整合生物成熟度以及为女子足球提供实证依据的需求。
