Geraldes Martim A, Giovanetti Marta, Cunha Mónica V, Lourenço José
Católica Biomedical Research Center, Católica Medical School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa, 2780-156 Oeiras, Portugal.
Sciences and Technologies for Sustainable Development and One Health, Università Campus Bio-Medico di Roma, Via Álvaro del Portillo 21, 00128 Rome, Italy.
Viruses. 2025 May 30;17(6):799. doi: 10.3390/v17060799.
While archipelagos have a demonstrated role in the stepping-stone process of the global dissemination of -borne viruses, they are often neglected in epidemiological and modelling studies. Over the past 20 years, some Atlantic archipelagos have witnessed a series of -borne viral outbreaks, prompting inquiries into the local historical suitability for transmission. In this study, the climate-based suitability for transmission of -borne viruses between 1980 and 2019 across Madeira, the Canaries, Cape Verde, and São Tomé e Príncipe archipelagos was estimated. For each island, we characterized the seasonality of climate-based suitability, mapped the spatial landscape of suitability, and quantified the historical effects of climate change. Results show that both island-level suitability and the historical impact of climate change decrease with distance from the equator, while significant seasonality patterns are observed only in subtropical climates. This study provides a unique historical perspective on the role of climate in shaping -borne virus transmission potential in Atlantic archipelagos. The findings herein described can inform local public health initiatives, including human-based prevention, targeted viral surveillance, and mosquito control programs.
虽然群岛在虫媒病毒全球传播的踏脚石过程中已显示出作用，但在流行病学和建模研究中它们常常被忽视。在过去20年里，一些大西洋群岛见证了一系列虫媒病毒爆发，促使人们探究当地过去对病毒传播的适宜性。在本研究中，我们估计了1980年至2019年期间马德拉群岛、加那利群岛、佛得角群岛和圣多美和普林西比群岛基于气候的虫媒病毒传播适宜性。对于每个岛屿，我们描述了基于气候适宜性的季节性特征，绘制了适宜性的空间分布图，并量化了气候变化的历史影响。结果表明，岛屿层面的适宜性以及气候变化的历史影响均随着与赤道距离的增加而降低，而显著的季节性模式仅在亚热带气候中观察到。本研究为气候在塑造大西洋群岛虫媒病毒传播潜力方面的作用提供了独特的历史视角。本文所述的研究结果可为当地公共卫生举措提供参考，包括基于人群的预防、针对性的病毒监测和蚊虫控制项目。
