Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy.
Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy; Department of Mathematics, University of Trento, Trento, Italy.
Lancet Planet Health. 2024 Jan;8(1):e30-e40. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00252-8.
Estimates of the spatiotemporal distribution of different mosquito vector species and the associated risk of transmission of arboviruses are key to design adequate policies for preventing local outbreaks and reducing the number of human infections in endemic areas. In this study, we quantified the abundance of Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti and the local transmission potential for three arboviral infections at an unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution in areas where no entomological surveillance is available.
We developed a computational model to quantify the daily abundance of Aedes mosquitoes, leveraging temperature and precipitation records. The model was calibrated on mosquito surveillance data collected in 115 locations in Europe and the Americas between 2007 and 2018. Model estimates were used to quantify the reproduction number of dengue virus, Zika virus, and chikungunya in Europe and the Americas, at a high spatial resolution.
In areas colonised by both Aedes species, A aegypti was estimated to be the main vector for the transmission of dengue virus, Zika virus, and chikungunya, being associated with a higher estimate of R when compared with A albopictus. Our estimates highlighted that these arboviruses were endemic in tropical and subtropical countries, with the highest risks of transmission found in central America, Venezuela, Colombia, and central-east Brazil. A non-negligible potential risk of transmission was also estimated for Florida, Texas, and Arizona (USA). The broader ecological niche of A albopictus could contribute to the emergence of chikungunya outbreaks and clusters of dengue autochthonous cases in temperate areas of the Americas, as well as in mediterranean Europe (in particular, in Italy, southern France, and Spain).
Our results provide a comprehensive overview of the transmission potential of arboviral diseases in Europe and the Americas, highlighting areas where surveillance and mosquito control capacities should be prioritised.
EU and Ministero dell'Università e della Ricerca, Italy (Piano Nazionale di Ripresa e Resilienza Extended Partnership initiative on Emerging Infectious Diseases); EU (Horizon 2020); Ministero dell'Università e della Ricerca, Italy (Progetti di ricerca di Rilevante Interesse Nazionale programme); Brazilian National Council of Science, Technology and Innovation; Ministry of Health, Brazil; and Foundation of Research for Minas Gerais, Brazil.
估计不同蚊媒物种的时空分布以及与虫媒病毒传播相关的风险，是制定适当政策以预防局部暴发和减少流行地区人类感染数量的关键。在这项研究中，我们以空前的时空分辨率量化了在缺乏昆虫学监测的地区，登革热病毒、寨卡病毒和基孔肯雅热病毒三种虫媒病毒的白纹伊蚊和埃及伊蚊的丰度和局部传播潜力。
我们开发了一种计算模型，利用温度和降水记录来量化伊蚊的日丰度。该模型在 2007 年至 2018 年期间在欧洲和美洲的 115 个地点收集的蚊虫监测数据上进行了校准。模型估计用于量化欧洲和美洲登革热病毒、寨卡病毒和基孔肯雅热病毒的繁殖数，空间分辨率很高。
在同时存在两种埃及伊蚊的地区，埃及伊蚊被估计为传播登革热病毒、寨卡病毒和基孔肯雅热病毒的主要媒介，与白纹伊蚊相比，其繁殖数的估计值更高。我们的估计表明，这些虫媒病毒在热带和亚热带国家流行，中美洲、委内瑞拉、哥伦比亚和巴西中东部的传播风险最高。佛罗里达州、德克萨斯州和亚利桑那州（美国）也存在不可忽视的传播风险。白纹伊蚊更广泛的生态位可能导致基孔肯雅热在美洲温带地区以及地中海欧洲（特别是意大利、法国南部和西班牙）暴发和登革热本地病例的聚集。
我们的结果提供了欧洲和美洲虫媒病毒疾病传播潜力的综合概述，突出了需要优先加强监测和蚊虫控制能力的地区。
欧盟和意大利大学与研究部（新发传染病扩大伙伴关系倡议）；欧盟（地平线 2020）；意大利大学与研究部（重大国家利益研究计划）；巴西国家科学技术与创新理事会；巴西卫生部；巴西米纳斯吉拉斯研究基金会。
