富人外流？审视美国的气候灾害、移民与家庭收入

Exodus of the affluent? examining climate hazards, migration, and household income in the U.S.

作者信息

Clark Mahalia B, Nkonya Ephraim, Galford Gillian L

机构信息

Gund Institute for Environment and Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT USA.

Rural Economy Branch, Resource and Rural Economics Division, Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC USA.

出版信息

Popul Environ. 2025;47(3):28. doi: 10.1007/s11111-025-00496-5. Epub 2025 Jun 25.

DOI:10.1007/s11111-025-00496-5

PMID:40574911

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12187813/

Abstract

UNLABELLED

With rising global temperatures come greater temperature and precipitation variability, contributing to more frequent and severe climate hazards that can upend lives and displace families. Lower-income households are often disproportionately impacted, so it is important to understand how climate hazards influence human migration patterns across income levels. There has been limited research on climate migration within the United States (US), particularly with respect to its economic impacts, like the associated transfer of household resources and incomes, or "income migration." Here, we investigate spatial and temporal patterns of US domestic migration across income brackets between 2011 and 2021. We then investigate the role of climate hazards in shaping migration and income migration across US counties using panel data for the years 1995-2021. We found that lower-income households moved at higher rates overall but had less net migration across state lines, while higher-income households moved in a more directed fashion towards the most popular migration destinations. We also found an uptick in migration and income migration after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly among higher income brackets. Property damage from climate hazards had small but significant relationships with migration. More destructive hurricanes were associated with reduced net migration and income migration nationally and in the South and Northeast. Flood damage was associated with reduced net income migration (greater outflow and/or reduced inflow of aggregate household income from migration) but had minimal effects on net migration overall, suggesting higher-income households (whose moves have a larger impact on net income migration) may be more likely to leave or avoid counties impacted by flooding. This work provides valuable new insights on the roles of both climate hazards and income levels in shaping domestic migration.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11111-025-00496-5.

摘要

未标注

随着全球气温上升，气温和降水的变率也在增大，导致更频繁、更严重的气候灾害，这些灾害可能会颠覆人们的生活，使家庭流离失所。低收入家庭往往受到的影响更大，因此了解气候灾害如何影响不同收入水平人群的迁移模式很重要。在美国，关于气候迁移的研究有限，特别是其经济影响，比如家庭资源和收入的相关转移，即“收入迁移”方面的研究。在此，我们调查了2011年至2021年间美国不同收入阶层国内迁移的时空模式。然后，我们利用1995 - 2021年的面板数据，研究气候灾害在美国各县塑造迁移和收入迁移方面的作用。我们发现，低收入家庭总体迁移率较高，但跨州净迁移较少，而高收入家庭迁移方向更明确，朝着最热门的迁移目的地。我们还发现，新冠疫情爆发后，迁移和收入迁移有所增加，特别是在高收入阶层中。气候灾害造成的财产损失与迁移之间存在虽小但显著的关系。更具破坏性的飓风与全国以及南部和东北部的净迁移和收入迁移减少有关。洪水灾害与净收入迁移减少（家庭总收入因迁移的流出增加和/或流入减少）有关，但对总体净迁移影响最小，这表明高收入家庭（其迁移对净收入迁移影响更大）可能更有可能离开或避开受洪水影响的县。这项工作为气候灾害和收入水平在塑造国内迁移中的作用提供了有价值的新见解。