Blain Félix, Boissonneault Michaël
Department of Demography, University of Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci. 2025 Jul 25;80(8). doi: 10.1093/geronb/gbaf119.
This study investigates trends in healthy working life expectancy (HWLE) in the United States amid changing retirement conditions and recent declines in health among working-age individuals. HWLE, defined as the average number of years expected to be spent healthy and working between ages 51 and 80, is examined by gender and educational level across three birth cohorts.
Using longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), HWLE estimates were calculated for individuals aged 51 and older. Using continuous-time multistate modelling, trends were analyzed across three birth cohorts (1936-1941, 1942-1947, 1948-1953), focusing on differences by gender and educational attainment to assess disparities in HWLE over time.
The findings indicate that HWLE remained stable for most groups but declined among individuals with lower educational attainment. Thus, as early retirement becomes increasingly costly and risky, workers appear unable to extend their working lives and are facing growing inequalities.
These findings highlight the need for targeted policies to promote healthier work environments and expanded job opportunities for older adults. Addressing disparities in HWLE, particularly for those with less education, is critical to improving outcomes for future cohorts as they approach retirement age.
本研究调查了在美国退休条件不断变化以及工作年龄人群近期健康状况下降的情况下，健康工作预期寿命（HWLE）的趋势。HWLE定义为51岁至80岁之间预期健康工作的平均年数，按性别和教育水平对三个出生队列进行了研究。
利用健康与退休研究（HRS）的纵向数据，计算了51岁及以上人群的HWLE估计值。采用连续时间多状态模型，分析了三个出生队列（1936 - 1941年、1942 - 1947年、1948 - 1953年）的趋势，重点关注性别和教育程度差异，以评估HWLE随时间的差异。
研究结果表明，大多数群体的HWLE保持稳定，但受教育程度较低的个体的HWLE有所下降。因此，随着提前退休的成本和风险越来越高，工人似乎无法延长工作寿命，面临着日益加剧的不平等。
这些发现凸显了制定针对性政策以促进更健康的工作环境和为老年人扩大就业机会的必要性。解决HWLE方面的差异，特别是对受教育程度较低的人来说，对于改善未来队列接近退休年龄时的结果至关重要。
