Lu Wei, Wang Bing, Du Mi, Ge Shaohua
Department of Periodontology & Orthodontics & Implantology, School and Hospital of Stomatology, Shandong University & Shandong Key Laboratory of Oral Tissue Regeneration & Shandong Engineering Research Center of Dental Materials and Oral Tissue Regeneration & Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Oral Diseases, Jinan, Shandong, China; Department of Oral Medicine, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong First Medical University, Jinan, Shandong, China.
Department of Periodontology & Orthodontics & Implantology, School and Hospital of Stomatology, Shandong University & Shandong Key Laboratory of Oral Tissue Regeneration & Shandong Engineering Research Center of Dental Materials and Oral Tissue Regeneration & Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Oral Diseases, Jinan, Shandong, China.
Int Dent J. 2025 Jun 26;75(4):100875. doi: 10.1016/j.identj.2025.100875.
This study aims to analyse global trends in the burden of oral diseases, including dental caries and noncarious oral diseases (NCODs), in individuals aged 10 to 24 from 1990 to 2021 and project future trends up to 2050.
Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021, this trend analysis examines the number, age-standardised rates (ASRs), and average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) in prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years for oral diseases across different age groups, sexes, social-development index (SDI) levels, regions, and nations. Joinpoint regression was applied to identify key inflection points, while Bayesian modelling was used to project future trends.
Globally, the ASR of oral disease prevalence slightly decreased from 35,408 per 100,000 populations (95% CI: 25,412-47,171) in 1990 to 34,004 per 100,000 population (95% CI: 25,255-44,634) in 2021, with an AAPC of -0.13 (95% CI: -0.16 to -0.10). Dental caries saw a reduction in prevalence and burden, while NCODs increased. Males experienced a faster decline than females, who consistently had higher prevalence and burden. Adolescents aged 10 to 14 years showed the most significant decline. Central Europe experienced the most significant regional reduction, while Greece saw the largest national decline in the prevalence of oral diseases. Higher SDI strata were associated with lower prevalence, with high-SDI countries showing the greatest decline. Projections indicate a slight decrease in prevalence by 2050, with the overall burden remaining unchanged.
Despite the decline in prevalence, the burden of oral diseases remains, highlighting the need for more effective prioritisation of oral health care for adolescents and young adults.
The persistent burden of oral diseases and disparities in oral health are evident across different sexes, age groups, SDI levels, regions, and nations. This highlights the ongoing need for increased attention to oral health among adolescents and young adults, particularly for females, older adolescents, and those in low- and middle-income countries.
本研究旨在分析1990年至2021年10至24岁个体口腔疾病负担的全球趋势，包括龋齿和非龋性口腔疾病（NCODs），并预测至2050年的未来趋势。
利用全球疾病负担研究（GBD）2021的数据，本趋势分析考察了不同年龄组、性别、社会发展指数（SDI）水平、地区和国家口腔疾病患病率、发病率和伤残调整生命年的数量、年龄标准化率（ASRs）以及年均百分比变化（AAPCs）。采用Joinpoint回归确定关键拐点，同时使用贝叶斯模型预测未来趋势。
全球范围内，口腔疾病患病率的年龄标准化率从1990年的每10万人35408例（95%CI：25412 - 47171）略微下降至2021年的每10万人34004例（95%CI：25255 - 44634），年均百分比变化为-0.13（95%CI：-0.16至-0.10）。龋齿的患病率和负担有所下降，而非龋性口腔疾病则有所增加。男性的下降速度比女性更快，女性的患病率和负担一直较高。10至14岁的青少年下降最为显著。中欧地区的区域降幅最为显著，而希腊的全国口腔疾病患病率降幅最大。较高的SDI阶层与较低的患病率相关，高SDI国家的降幅最大。预测表明，到2050年患病率将略有下降，总体负担保持不变。
尽管患病率有所下降，但口腔疾病负担依然存在，这凸显了对青少年和年轻人的口腔保健进行更有效优先安排的必要性。
口腔疾病的持续负担以及口腔健康方面的差异在不同性别、年龄组、SDI水平、地区和国家都很明显。这凸显了持续需要更多关注青少年和年轻人的口腔健康，特别是女性、年龄较大的青少年以及低收入和中等收入国家的人群。
