Aortic aneurysm trends attributable to high body mass index over the period 1990-2021 and projections up to 2040.

BACKGROUND

Obesity is a significant health issue globally, which can exacerbate aortic aneurysm (AA) diseases. AA is a type of cardiac aneurysm. As notable members of emerging economies, the BRICS nations collectively account for nearly 40% of the world's population and generate approximately 25% of global GDP. The health systems of the BRICS countries are an important part of the global health system. The health system situation of the BRICS countries can to a large extent reflect the overall situation of the world's health system. Understanding the impact trends of obesity in the BRICS countries (Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, China, and South Africa) is crucial due to their unique economic conditions and social backgrounds.

METHODS

Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database from 1990 to 2021, we extracted data related to AA and focused on mortality and years of life lost attributable to high BMI. We selected five countries with diverse geographic locations, economic development levels, healthcare systems, and demographic profiles. Descriptive analysis, decomposition analysis, and forecasting analysis were conducted to evaluate the impact of high BMI on the disease burden of AA and to predict future trends.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2021, all five countries experienced an increase in mortality rates attributable to high BMI for AAs. For instance, China's mortality rate increased from 0.0099 per 100,000 population in 1990 to 0.0376 per 100,000 in 2021. The Russian Federation had the largest increase, from 0.3370 per 100,000 in 1990 to 0.7283 per 100,000 in 2021. The trends in DALYs were consistent with those of mortality rates. In China, the DALY rate increased from 0.2788 per 100,000 in 1990 to 0.7449 per 100,000 in 2021. The EAPC analysis indicated that population aging and epidemiological changes were the primary drivers behind the increasing burden of AA attributable to high BMI. The forecasting analysis suggests a sustained increase in mortality rates due to AA attributable to high BMI across all examined countries.

CONCLUSION

The findings are crucial for developing targeted preventive measures to alleviate the burden of AA over the coming decades, especially against the backdrop of rapidly aging populations and rapidly changing lifestyles.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40200-025-01665-x.