Liu Yan, Gao Yi, Yan Guangcan, Liu Yige, Tian Wei, Zhang Yiying, Wang Shanjie, Yu Bo
Department of Cardiology, Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, China.
The Key Laboratory of Myocardial Ischemia, Chinese Ministry of Education, National Key Laboratory of Frigid Zone Cardiovascular Diseases, Harbin, China.
Am J Prev Cardiol. 2024 Nov 29;21:100902. doi: 10.1016/j.ajpc.2024.100902. eCollection 2025 Mar.
Secondhand smoke (SHS) is a strong but comparatively controllable cardiometabolic risk factor. This study aims to assess the present and future burden of cardiometabolic diseases (CMDs) from SHS exposure.
Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) framework, we examined mortality and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) from CMDs attributable to SHS, by age, sex, and year, including cardiovascular disease [CVD, ischemic heart disease (IHD) and/or stroke], and/or Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) from 1990 to 2019. The predicted death number and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) from 2020 to 2040 were estimated by the Bayesian age-period cohort (BAPC) model.
SHS exposure declined until 2016 but stabilized or increased thereafter. From 1990 to 2019, CMD-related deaths and DALYs due to SHS are continuously increasing, particularly in low-middle and middle Sociodemographic Index (SDI) regions. In 2019, a significant proportion of CMD-related deaths and DALYs among females under 65 were attributed to SHS exposure. In females aged 25-29, SHS contributed to 16.12 % and 13.30 % of IHD and T2DM deaths, respectively. Surprisingly, forecasts show that annual deaths from IHD, stroke, and T2DM related to SHS exposure are anticipated to rise over the next 20 years.
SHS exposure has stopped declining in recent years. CMD-related deaths from controlled SHS have increased and are predicted to rise substantially over the next 20 years. Reducing SHS exposure could have major benefits for cardiometabolic health worldwide, especially for women under 65 years in less developed regions.
二手烟（SHS）是一种强大但相对可控的心脏代谢风险因素。本研究旨在评估二手烟暴露导致的心脏代谢疾病（CMD）当前和未来的负担。
使用全球疾病负担（GBD）框架，我们按年龄、性别和年份，研究了1990年至2019年期间归因于二手烟的CMD导致的死亡率和伤残调整生命年（DALY），包括心血管疾病[CVD、缺血性心脏病（IHD）和/或中风]，和/或2型糖尿病（T2DM）。通过贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型估计了2020年至2040年的预测死亡人数和年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）。
二手烟暴露在2016年之前呈下降趋势，但此后趋于稳定或上升。1990年至2019年期间，二手烟导致的与CMD相关的死亡和DALY持续增加，尤其是在低中社会人口指数（SDI）地区和中SDI地区。2019年，65岁以下女性中相当一部分与CMD相关的死亡和DALY归因于二手烟暴露。在25至29岁的女性中，二手烟分别导致16.12%的IHD死亡和13.30%的T2DM死亡。令人惊讶的是，预测显示，在未来20年里，与二手烟暴露相关的IHD、中风和T2DM的年死亡人数预计将上升。
近年来二手烟暴露已停止下降。二手烟暴露得到控制后，与CMD相关的死亡人数有所增加，预计在未来20年还会大幅上升。减少二手烟暴露可能会给全球心脏代谢健康带来重大益处，尤其是对欠发达地区65岁以下的女性。
