Su Xie, Ouyang Xianheng, Ding Xiaoqun, Wang Yang, Liu Wangang, Liu Yang
Key Laboratory of Resource Biology and Biotechnology in Western China, College of Life Science, Northwest University, Taibai North Road 229, Xi'an 710069, China.
College of Forestry, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China.
Insects. 2025 Jun 18;16(6):642. doi: 10.3390/insects16060642.
Beetles of the family Mordellidae, important global pollinators, include , the third largest genus, which retains plesiomorphic traits related to pollination and is mainly found between 38° S-38° N. Existing studies on focus largely on taxonomy and systematics. The ecological response of to climate change remains poorly understood. Our objective was to investigate how the distribution of may respond to climate change using a species-level MaxEnt based model with 297 geographic distribution data points and seven bioclimatic environmental variables. The study showed that the MaxEnt model had a high predictive accuracy, with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.963. The maximum temperature of the warmest month, mean annual precipitation, and mean precipitation of the driest quarter were the three most important factors affecting the distribution of . Currently, the suitable distribution areas of are mainly located in East Asia, Southeast Asia, eastern North America, South America, and central and western Africa. Under future climate scenarios, the area of suitable habitat is expected to increase gradually as global temperatures rise. Under the SSP585 scenario in the 2070s, the suitable habitat area is projected to expand by 53.89% compared to the present. Additionally, the centroid of suitable habitat is expected to shift northward. This study not only deepens the understanding of the distribution patterns of and their response to climate change but also provides important scientific evidence for the conservation of pollinator diversity.
拟步甲科甲虫是重要的全球传粉者，其中包含第三大属，该属保留了与传粉相关的原始性状，主要分布在南纬38°至北纬38°之间。现有关于该属的研究主要集中在分类学和系统学方面。人们对该属对气候变化的生态响应仍知之甚少。我们的目标是使用基于物种水平的MaxEnt模型，结合297个地理分布数据点和七个生物气候环境变量，研究该属的分布如何响应气候变化。研究表明，MaxEnt模型具有较高的预测准确性，曲线下面积（AUC）值为0.963。最暖月的最高温度、年平均降水量和最干季度的平均降水量是影响该属分布的三个最重要因素。目前，该属的适宜分布区主要位于东亚、东南亚、北美东部、南美以及非洲中西部。在未来气候情景下，随着全球气温上升，适宜栖息地面积预计将逐渐增加。在2070年代的SSP585情景下，适宜栖息地面积预计将比目前扩大53.89%。此外，适宜栖息地的质心预计将向北移动。这项研究不仅加深了对该属分布模式及其对气候变化响应的理解，也为传粉者多样性保护提供了重要的科学依据。
