Semenova Yuliya, Kussainova Assiya, Kassym Laura, Aimurziyeva Ainur, Semenov Daniil, Makalkina Larissa, Aldiyarova Nurgul, Avdeyev Andrey, Lim Lisa
School of Medicine, Nazarbayev University, 53 Kabanbay Batyr Ave, Astana, 010000, Kazakhstan.
Astana Medical University, Astana, Kazakhstan.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 1;15(1):20812. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-05161-3.
There is a lack of studies from low- and middle-income countries on systemic antiviral consumption (SAC). This study aims to fill this gap by providing a comprehensive analysis of nationwide antiviral consumption trends in Kazakhstan over a period of 7 years. The defined daily doses per 1000 inhabitants per day approach was utilized. Time series analyses were applied to analyze historical trends in SAC, evaluate the impact of the coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic, and make future projections until 2030. The total SAC increased over the study period, with an annual growth rate of 10.24%. Overall, the antivirals that exhibited the most substantial increases in consumption after 2020 were anti-herpes, anti-HBV/HCV, and anti-influenza agents. Predictive modeling indicated that future expenditures on antivirals will remain stable in the hospital sector, both in absolute terms and per million population (pmp) rates, but are likely to increase in the community sector, both in absolute terms and pmp rates. The study's findings have important implications for public health policy and resource allocation.
低收入和中等收入国家缺乏关于系统性抗病毒药物消费（SAC）的研究。本研究旨在通过全面分析哈萨克斯坦7年间全国抗病毒药物消费趋势来填补这一空白。采用了每千居民每日限定日剂量的方法。运用时间序列分析来分析SAC的历史趋势、评估2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行的影响，并对2030年之前的情况进行未来预测。在研究期间，SAC总量有所增加，年增长率为10.24%。总体而言，2020年后消费量增长最为显著的抗病毒药物是抗疱疹药、抗乙肝病毒/丙肝病毒药和抗流感药。预测模型表明，未来医院部门抗病毒药物的支出在绝对值和每百万人口（pmp）比率方面将保持稳定，但社区部门的支出在绝对值和pmp比率方面可能会增加。该研究结果对公共卫生政策和资源分配具有重要意义。
