Feng Yan, Zhuo Ying, Tang Jie, Zhang Guodong, Shi Wuxiang, Zhou Lingmi
The School of Public Health, Guilin Medical University, Guilin, 541199, Guangxi, China.
Guilin Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guilin, 541001, Guangxi, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 2;15(1):22629. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-07683-2.
To analyze the changing trend of HIV/AIDS-related mortality before and after the implementation of the "Prevention and Treatment of HIV/AIDS" policy in Guilin from 1996 to 2020, and to evaluate its effect on HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment. The data of people with HIV reported in Guilin up to December 31, 2020, were obtained from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the two rounds of "Prevention and Treatment of HIV/AIDS" policy intervention boundary points were taken in 2010 and 2015, respectively. The interruption time series (ITS) analysis was used to analyze the trend of HIV/AIDS-related mortality before and after the implementation of the HIV/AIDS Prevention and Treatment Project. From 1996 to 2020, the HIV/AIDS mortality rate decreased in Guilin, and the HIV/AIDS mortality rate of farmers was higher than the overall HIV/AIDS mortality rate. The ITS method analysis results showed that after the implementation of two rounds of "Prevention and Treatment of HIV/AIDS" policy, HIV/AIDS mortality rate showed a downward trend. Between 2010 and 2015, the overall decline in HIV/AIDS mortality rate exhibited a slope of -2.217 (P < 0.01). For individuals with an education level of high school or below, the decline in HIV/AIDS mortality rate during this period had a slope of -2.110 (P < 0.01). Among the farmer population, the decline in HIV/AIDS mortality rate from 2010 to 2015 was even more significant, with a slope of -2.510 (P < 0.01). From 2015 to 2020, the overall HIV/AIDS mortality rate continued to decline, showing a slope of -0.230 (P < 0.01). Between 2015 and 2020, for those with an education level of high school or below, the decline in HIV/AIDS mortality rate had a slope of -0.225 (P < 0.01). In contrast, the decline in HIV/AIDS mortality rate among farmers from 2015 to 2020 was steeper, with a slope of -0.319 (P < 0.01). From 2010 to 2020, the HIV/AIDS mortality rate in Guilin has shown a decreasing trend, indicating that the implementation of the "Prevention and Treatment of HIV/AIDS" policy has achieved good results.
分析1996年至2020年桂林市实施“艾滋病防治”政策前后艾滋病相关死亡率的变化趋势，并评估其对艾滋病防治的效果。获取截至2020年12月31日桂林市报告的艾滋病病毒感染者数据，数据来源于中国疾病预防控制中心（CDC），并分别将2010年和2015年作为两轮“艾滋病防治”政策干预的分界点。采用中断时间序列（ITS）分析方法分析艾滋病防治项目实施前后艾滋病相关死亡率的变化趋势。1996年至2020年，桂林市艾滋病死亡率呈下降趋势，农民艾滋病死亡率高于总体艾滋病死亡率。ITS方法分析结果显示，两轮“艾滋病防治”政策实施后，艾滋病死亡率呈下降趋势。2010年至2015年期间，艾滋病死亡率总体下降斜率为-2.217（P＜0.01）。对于高中及以下文化程度人群，这一时期艾滋病死亡率下降斜率为-2.110（P＜0.01）。在农民人群中，2010年至2015年艾滋病死亡率下降更为显著，斜率为-2.510（P＜0.01）。2015年至2020年，总体艾滋病死亡率继续下降，斜率为-0.230（P＜0.01）。2015年至2020年期间，对于高中及以下文化程度人群，艾滋病死亡率下降斜率为-0.225（P＜0.01）。相比之下，2015年至2020年农民人群中艾滋病死亡率下降更为陡峭，斜率为-0.319（P＜0.01）。2010年至2020年，桂林市艾滋病死亡率呈下降趋势，表明“艾滋病防治”政策的实施取得了良好效果。
