Hye Md Abdul, Biswas Md Haider Ali, Uddin Mohammed Forhad
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Bangladesh University of Business and Technology (BUBT), Dhaka, 1216, Bangladesh.
Department of Mathematics, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Dhaka, 1000, Bangladesh.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 2;15(1):22845. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-05755-x.
The COVID-19 pandemic remains a serious health risk, especially with diseases like kidney disease. There is no information in the literature on co-infection of kidney disease with COVID-19. Therefore, the current study introduces a deterministic mathematical model to explore the co-infection dynamics between COVID-19 and kidney disease, intending to offer insightful guidance for effective control strategies. The findings indicate that individuals with kidney disease are at an increased risk of severe complications from COVID-19, while COVID-19 can exacerbate kidney disease symptoms, creating a complex health scenario. To mitigate these risks, we propose and rigorously analyze three control measures using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. Three controls [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], focus on public health education for COVID-19, promote a healthy lifestyle to prevent kidney disease, and provide specialized treatment for co-infected patients, respectively. The model's parameters are adjusted to align with collected epidemiological data using a hybrid approach that combines Bayesian and least square estimation methods. Our results are validated in the existing literature to identify the most effective control strategies. The study highlights the necessity of integrated healthcare strategies in managing the intricate relationship between COVID-19 and kidney disease. The results indicate that co-infection prevalence decreases when all three control measures are implemented simultaneously. Studying this potential control model is instrumental in optimizing control strategies, thereby significantly reducing the health complexities associated with co-infection of COVID-19 and kidney disease. This approach utilizes simulation to its maximum benefit, aiming to simplify the global health challenges posed by these conditions.
新冠疫情仍然是一个严重的健康风险,尤其是对于像肾病这样的疾病。文献中没有关于肾病与新冠病毒合并感染的信息。因此,当前的研究引入了一个确定性数学模型来探索新冠病毒与肾病之间的合并感染动态,旨在为有效的控制策略提供有见地的指导。研究结果表明,肾病患者感染新冠病毒后出现严重并发症的风险增加,而新冠病毒会加重肾病症状,从而造成复杂的健康状况。为了降低这些风险,我们使用庞特里亚金极大值原理提出并严格分析了三种控制措施。三种控制措施[公式:见原文]和[公式:见原文],分别侧重于针对新冠病毒的公共卫生教育、倡导健康生活方式以预防肾病以及为合并感染患者提供专门治疗。使用结合了贝叶斯和最小二乘估计方法的混合方法来调整模型参数,使其与收集到的流行病学数据一致。我们的结果在现有文献中得到验证,以确定最有效的控制策略。该研究强调了综合医疗保健策略在管理新冠病毒与肾病之间复杂关系方面的必要性。结果表明,同时实施所有三种控制措施时,合并感染患病率会降低。研究这个潜在的控制模型有助于优化控制策略,从而显著降低与新冠病毒和肾病合并感染相关的健康复杂性。这种方法最大限度地利用了模拟,旨在简化这些情况所带来的全球健康挑战。