Hale Galina, Oncescu Vlad, Bhangale Ritesh
University of California Santa Cruz, NBER, CEPR, Santa Cruz, USA.
Accenture, New York, USA.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 2;15(1):22643. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-07866-x.
The global food system is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions that drive climate change. Animal agriculture accounts for a large share of food-system emissions, both directly and through the production of animal feed. Global population growth and rising incomes imply a further increase in demand for animal-source foods if current trends persist. Limiting global warming to the targets set by the international community will not be possible without the rapid reduction of a substantial share of animal-source foods. We show that the rapid adoption of alternatives to animal-source foods, such as plant-only diets or plant-based, cultured, or fermentation-derived analogs to animal products, can be consistent with climate goals while satisfying global demand for calories and protein. Importantly, timing is crucial: the longer the delay in adopting alternatives, the larger the share of the diet that must shift away from animal-source food by 2050 for the food system to remain within its carbon budget.
全球粮食系统是导致气候变化的温室气体排放的重要来源。畜牧业在粮食系统排放中占很大比例，这既包括直接排放，也包括通过动物饲料生产产生的排放。如果当前趋势持续下去，全球人口增长和收入增加意味着对动物源食品的需求将进一步上升。如果不大幅快速减少动物源食品的份额，将全球变暖限制在国际社会设定的目标是不可能的。我们表明，迅速采用动物源食品的替代品，如纯植物性饮食或动物产品的植物基、培养或发酵衍生类似物，既能符合气候目标，又能满足全球对热量和蛋白质的需求。重要的是，时机至关重要：采用替代品的延迟时间越长，到2050年为使粮食系统保持在其碳预算范围内而必须从动物源食品中转变的饮食份额就越大。
