Yan Suo Yu, Chen Fang Ming, Guo Bang Jun, Hu Su, Lin Li, Yang Yi Wen, Jiang Xin Yu, Yao Hui, Hu Chun Hong, Su Yun Yan
Department of Radiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, 899 Pinghai Road, Gusu District, Soochow, Jiangsu Province, Suzhou, 215006, P.R. China.
Department of Radiology, Jiangnan University Medical Center, 214000, Wuxi, P.R. China.
BMC Med Imaging. 2025 Jul 1;25(1):251. doi: 10.1186/s12880-025-01773-3.
BACKGROUND: The role of radiomics and abdominal fat analysis in the survival prediction of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) has attracted attention. This study aims to develop a preoperative model for predicting early recurrence (ER) in patients pathologically confirmed PDAC, combining radiomic and abdominal fat analysis. METHODS: A total of 177 patients (Hospital A) were retrospectively analyzed and allocated to the training cohort (n = 124) and internal validation cohort (n = 53). Another 71 patients (Hospital B) group formed the geographic external validation cohort. The threshold of ER was set at 6 months after surgery, and the primary endpoint was to determine the best model to predict ER of PDAC patients. A radiomics model for predicting ER was constructed by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox regression. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to build a combined model based on radiomics, fat quantitation, and clinical features. The combined model's performance was assessed using the Harrell concordance index (C-index). Based on the nomogram score, patients were stratified into high-risk and low-risk groups, and survival analysis of different risk groups was performed using the Kaplan-Meier (KM) method. All patients were divided into four subgroups according to recurrence patterns: local recurrence subgroup, distant recurrence subgroup, "local + distant" recurrence subgroup, and "multiple" recurrence subgroup. The predictive efficacy of the combined model was calculated in different subgroups. RESULTS: Radiomics scores (P < 0.001), CA19-9 (P = 0.009), and visceral to subcutaneous fat volume ratio(P = 0.009) were selected for the combined model. Compared to clinical and radiomics models, the combined model exhibited the best prediction performance. C indexes of the training cohort, internal validation cohort, and external validation cohort were 0.778 (0.711,0.845), 0.746 (0.632,0.860), and 0.712 (0.612,0.812) respectively, showing the improvement over the clinical model (without radiomics and fat quantitation features) in the internal validation and external validation sets (DeLong test: P = 0.027, P = 0.079). KM analysis showed significant differences between risk groups (all P < 0.05). The combined model also achieved robust performance in different subgroups of recurrence patterns. CONCLUSION: The combined model effectively predicted the probability of ER in PDAC patients and may provide an emerging tool to preoperatively guide personalized treatment. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: Not applicable.
背景:放射组学和腹部脂肪分析在胰腺导管腺癌(PDAC)生存预测中的作用已受到关注。本研究旨在结合放射组学和腹部脂肪分析,建立一种术前模型来预测病理确诊为PDAC患者的早期复发(ER)。 方法:对177例患者(A医院)进行回顾性分析,并分为训练队列(n = 124)和内部验证队列(n = 53)。另外71例患者(B医院)组成地理外部验证队列。ER的阈值设定为术后6个月,主要终点是确定预测PDAC患者ER的最佳模型。采用最小绝对收缩和选择算子Cox回归构建预测ER的放射组学模型。单因素和多因素Cox回归分析用于建立基于放射组学、脂肪定量和临床特征的联合模型。使用Harrell一致性指数(C指数)评估联合模型的性能。根据列线图评分,将患者分为高风险组和低风险组,并采用Kaplan-Meier(KM)法对不同风险组进行生存分析。所有患者根据复发模式分为四个亚组:局部复发亚组、远处复发亚组、“局部+远处”复发亚组和“多发”复发亚组。计算联合模型在不同亚组中的预测效能。 结果:联合模型纳入了放射组学评分(P < 0.001)、CA19-9(P = 0.009)和内脏与皮下脂肪体积比(P = 0.009)。与临床和放射组学模型相比,联合模型表现出最佳的预测性能。训练队列、内部验证队列和外部验证队列的C指数分别为0.778(0.711,0.845)、0.746(0.632,0.860)和0.712(0.612,0.812),显示在内部验证集和外部验证集中相对于临床模型(无放射组学和脂肪定量特征)有改善(DeLong检验:P = 0.027,P = 0.079)。KM分析显示风险组之间存在显著差异(均P < 0.05)。联合模型在不同复发模式亚组中也表现出稳健的性能。 结论:联合模型有效地预测了PDAC患者ER的概率,并可能为术前指导个性化治疗提供一种新工具。 临床试验编号:不适用。
Insights Imaging. 2023-11-19
Cancer Cell. 2023-6-12
CA Cancer J Clin. 2023-1