Pu Luoman
College of International Tourism and Public Administration, Hainan University, Haikou, 570228, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 2;15(1):23596. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-09205-6.
Cropland is the basic resource and condition for human survival. However, since 2000, Northeast China has been faced with severe challenges to grain production caused by non-agriculturalization, non-grainization and cropland abandonment, which in turn pose a potential threat to the long-term food security of the whole region and even China. This paper used GIS spatial analysis and statistical analysis methods to explore the impacts of non-agriculturalization, non-grainization and cropland abandonment on grain potential production (GPP) in Northeast China at a grid scale. From 2000 to 2020, the cropland area of Northeast China increased by about 2.10% (9,275.51 km), and the gravity center of cropland moved to the northeast with a moving distance of 9.18 km. The total lost GPP in Northeast China was 1,410.16 × 10 tonnes due to the non-agriculturalization, non-grainization and abandonment of cropland. Cropland abandonment was the main type of cropland use change leading to the loss of GPP. The dominant type of cropland use change was different in different provinces (regions), leading to different degrees of GPP loss. Heilongjiang Province and Inner Mongolia were dominated by cropland abandonment. Jilin Province and Liaoning province were mainly non-agriculturalization. At the same time, the conversion of cropland to orchards was more common in southern Liaoning Province. Since 2000, the proportion of sown area for grain crops in Northeast China and other provinces (regions) has increased, resulting in an increase of 1,134.76 × 10 tonnes in GPP, which has made up for the loss of GPP caused by other cropland use changes to a certain extent. In the future, measures should be taken to protect cropland, such as restoring agricultural production on abandoned cropland as soon as possible, strengthening the input and policy support of modern agricultural production factors in main grain producing areas, constructing the elastic mechanism of grain production-farmland fallow conversion, improving the intensive utilization rate of urban and rural land, perfecting the balance system of cultivated land occupation and compensation, and perfecting the land circulation mechanism.
耕地是人类生存的基本资源和条件。然而，自2000年以来，中国东北地区面临着由非农业化、非粮化和耕地撂荒引发的粮食生产严峻挑战，这反过来又对整个地区乃至中国的长期粮食安全构成潜在威胁。本文运用地理信息系统（GIS）空间分析和统计分析方法，在网格尺度上探究非农业化、非粮化和耕地撂荒对中国东北地区粮食生产潜力（GPP）的影响。2000年至2020年，中国东北地区耕地面积增加了约2.10%（9275.51平方千米），耕地重心向东北方向移动，移动距离为9.18千米。由于耕地的非农业化、非粮化和撂荒，中国东北地区粮食生产潜力总损失量为1410.16×10吨。耕地撂荒是导致粮食生产潜力损失的主要耕地利用变化类型。不同省份（地区）耕地利用变化的主导类型不同，导致粮食生产潜力损失程度各异。黑龙江省和内蒙古自治区以耕地撂荒为主。吉林省和辽宁省主要是非农业化。同时，辽宁省南部耕地转为果园的情况较为普遍。自2000年以来，中国东北地区及其他省份（地区）粮食作物播种面积比例有所增加，粮食生产潜力增加了1134.76×10吨，在一定程度上弥补了其他耕地利用变化造成的粮食生产潜力损失。未来，应采取措施保护耕地，如尽快恢复撂荒耕地的农业生产，加强主产区现代农业生产要素的投入和政策支持，构建粮食生产—耕地休耕转换弹性机制，提高城乡土地集约利用率，完善耕地占补平衡制度，完善土地流转机制。
