Punyapornwithaya Veerasak, Srisawang Supitchaya, Jainonthee Chalita, Li Wengui, Abila Ronello, Purevsuren Bolortuya
Research Center of Veterinary Biosciences and Veterinary Public Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, 50100, Thailand.
College of Veterinary Medicine, Yunnan Agricultural University, Kunming, 650201, China.
BMC Vet Res. 2025 Jul 2;21(1):427. doi: 10.1186/s12917-025-04888-5.
Changes in livestock prices are often linked to disease outbreaks. An animal price monitoring system has been considered a potential tool for predicting transboundary animal diseases (TADs). The aim of this study was to examine the cross-correlation between market price dynamics and disease outbreak patterns using publicly available online data to explore the potential of market prices as early indicators of impending TAD outbreaks.
Time series data on TAD outbreak reports, including foot and mouth disease (FMD), lumpy skin disease (LSD), and African swine fever (ASF), as well as animal price data for cattle and pigs in Thailand, were analyzed. Cross-correlation analysis was conducted to assess the relationship between animal prices and disease outbreak report patterns. Data from January 2021 to December 2023 (primary dataset) were analyzed to identify cross-correlation patterns, while data from January to September 2024 (extended dataset) were incorporated to evaluate the consistency of the observed cross-correlation over the study period.
A significant cross-correlation was identified between cattle prices and the number of outbreak reports for FMD in the primary dataset. An increase in cattle prices during the preceding one to two months (lags of -1 and - 2) was associated with a subsequent rise in FMD outbreak reports. This correlation remained consistent when the extended dataset was incrementally incorporated and analyzed on a month-by-month basis. In contrast, in the primary dataset, no significant cross-correlation was observed between cattle prices and LSD outbreak reports. For ASF, cross-correlations between farm-gate pig prices and ASF outbreak reports were detected at lag 0, lag 3, lag 4, and lag 5 in the primary dataset; however, no significant correlation was observed in the extended dataset.
This study demonstrates the feasibility of using animal price trends as signal tools for anticipating an increase in TAD outbreak reports. The findings specifically support the use of cattle price data as an early signal for forecasting increases in FMD outbreak reports in Thailand. The availability and consistency of publicly accessible data are essential components for the feasibility of using animal prices as a signal tool. Decision-makers and veterinary authorities may incorporate such tools into surveillance systems to support early warning efforts.
牲畜价格变化通常与疾病爆发有关。动物价格监测系统被认为是预测跨界动物疾病（TADs）的潜在工具。本研究的目的是利用公开可用的在线数据，研究市场价格动态与疾病爆发模式之间的交叉相关性，以探索市场价格作为即将发生的TADs爆发早期指标的潜力。
分析了关于TADs爆发报告的时间序列数据，包括口蹄疫（FMD）、结节性皮肤病（LSD）和非洲猪瘟（ASF），以及泰国牛和猪的动物价格数据。进行交叉相关性分析以评估动物价格与疾病爆发报告模式之间的关系。分析了2021年1月至2023年12月的数据（主要数据集）以识别交叉相关性模式，同时纳入了2024年1月至9月的数据（扩展数据集）以评估研究期间观察到的交叉相关性的一致性。
在主要数据集中，牛价与FMD爆发报告数量之间存在显著的交叉相关性。前一至两个月（滞后-1和-2）牛价的上涨与随后FMD爆发报告的增加有关。当逐月逐步纳入并分析扩展数据集时，这种相关性仍然一致。相比之下，在主要数据集中，未观察到牛价与LSD爆发报告之间存在显著的交叉相关性。对于ASF，在主要数据集中滞后0、滞后3、滞后4和滞后5时检测到农场门口猪价与ASF爆发报告之间的交叉相关性；然而，在扩展数据集中未观察到显著相关性。
本研究证明了将动物价格趋势用作预测TADs爆发报告增加的信号工具的可行性。研究结果特别支持将牛价数据用作预测泰国FMD爆发报告增加的早期信号。公开可用数据的可用性和一致性是将动物价格用作信号工具可行性的重要组成部分。决策者和兽医当局可将此类工具纳入监测系统，以支持早期预警工作。
