Guthrie Jemma, Honkanen Hannele M, Haydon Daniel T, Adams Colin E
Scottish Centre for Ecology and the Natural Environment, School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
Oecologia. 2025 Jul 9;207(8):129. doi: 10.1007/s00442-025-05770-9.
Identifying the environmental cues that determine the timing of developmental processes is vital to understanding the effects of climate change on populations. However, as developmental processes are inherently difficult to measure directly at the population level, the drivers and potential consequences of change in their timings remain unknown in most species. Here we explore the use of long-term monitoring data for assessments of change in the number of generations per year and its impact on abundance, demonstrating new applications for a rapidly growing data source. Data derived from a light trap in west-central Scotland operated over 56 years (1968 to 2023) showed that the small phoenix moth, Ecliptopera silaceata, switched from a univoltine to bivoltine generation pattern. This voltinism change was predicted by an increased minimum temperature in a critical time window towards the later part of the first generation's flight period. The population shows positive density dependence and the change in voltinism has no significant negative effect on population size, indicating no evidence of a developmental trap that has been postulated for other species. These results identify some of the proximate mechanisms of developmental responses to climate change in general and in voltinism in particular, specifically highlighting the importance of sustained temperature above minimum thresholds for development. These results could also help to make predictions about future changes in population sizes under climate change and increasing voltinism, in addition to how these changes may differ between species.
识别决定发育进程时间的环境线索对于理解气候变化对种群的影响至关重要。然而，由于发育进程在种群水平上本身就难以直接测量，在大多数物种中，其时间变化的驱动因素和潜在后果仍然未知。在这里，我们探索使用长期监测数据来评估每年世代数的变化及其对丰度的影响，展示了一种快速增长的数据源的新应用。来自苏格兰中西部一个运行了56年（1968年至2023年）的诱虫灯的数据显示，小凤凰蛾（Ecliptopera silaceata）从单化性转变为双化性的世代模式。这种化性变化是由第一代飞行期后期关键时间窗口内最低温度的升高所预测的。该种群表现出正密度依赖性，化性变化对种群大小没有显著的负面影响，这表明没有证据表明存在其他物种所假设的发育陷阱。这些结果确定了一般发育对气候变化反应，特别是化性反应的一些近端机制，特别强调了高于发育最低阈值的持续温度的重要性。这些结果还可以帮助预测气候变化和化性增加情况下未来种群大小的变化，以及这些变化在不同物种之间可能存在的差异。
