Transfer Learning-Based Interpretable Soil Lead Prediction in the Gejiu Mining Area, Yunnan.

Accurate prediction of soil lead (Pb) content in small sample scenarios is often limited by data scarcity and variability in soil properties, with traditional spectral modeling methods yielding suboptimal precision. To address this, we propose a transfer learning-based framework integrated with SHAP analysis for predicting soil Pb content in the Gejiu mining area, Yunnan. Using pH data from the European LUCAS soil database as the source domain, spectral features were extracted via a 1D-ResNet model and transferred to the target domain (130 soil samples from Gejiu) for Pb prediction. SHAP analysis was applied to clarify the role of spectral characteristics in cross-component transfer learning, uncovering shared and adaptive features between pH and Pb predictions. The transfer learning model (ResNet-pH-Pb) significantly outperformed direct modeling methods (PLS-Pb, SVM-Pb, and ResNet-Pb), with an R of 0.77, demonstrating superior accuracy. SHAP analysis showed that the model retained key pH-related wavelengths (550-750 nm and 1600-1700 nm) while optimizing Pb-related wavelengths (e.g., 919 nm and 959 nm). This study offers a novel approach for soil heavy metal prediction under small sample constraints and provides a theoretical basis for understanding spectral prediction mechanisms through interpretability analysis.