Wani Zishan Ahmad, Abdul Rahim P P, Dar Javid Ahmad, Lone Aamir Nazir, Siddiqui Sazada
Terrestrial Ecology and Modelling (TEaM) Lab, Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, SRM University-AP, Amravati, Andhra Pradesh, 522240, India.
Centre for Geospatial Technology, SRM University-AP, Amravati, Andhra Pradesh, 522240, India.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 14;15(1):25374. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-10862-w.
Podophyllum hexandrum is a globally endangered medicinal plant facing severe survival challenges. In the present study, habitat suitability modelling of P. hexandrum was carried out to identify potentially suitable habitats in the western Himalayas under current and future climatic scenarios using MaxEnt software. Future distribution modelling was carried out using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways; SSP126, SSP370 and SSP585 for the time period 2041-2070. MaxEnt output maps were categorized into four potential habitat suitability classes using threshold < 0.25 as "not suitable" 0.25-0.50 as "least suitable", 0.51-0.75 as "moderately suitable", and > 0.75 as "highly suitable". Furthermore, overlay analysis was used to calculate loss, gain, and no change areas. Centroid migration direction and distance were also calculated. The model revealed that the precipitation amount of the driest month and mean annual air temperature determine the distribution of P. hexandrum. Under future climatic scenarios, the species is predicted to undergo significant changes in its distribution losing 8.12% and 8.25% of its suitable habitats under SSP370 and SSP585 pathways, respectively. Under SSP126 pathway, the species is predicted to gain an area of 1.63%. The species is predicted to shift southeastwards under all climatic scenarios and the distance of centroid migration will increase with an increased climate extremities. Though overlapping of its suitable habitats with Protected Areas plays an important role in conserving its wild populations. The decline in number of individuals due to habitat fragmentation, low rate of natural regeneration or seed germination and prolonged dormancy is still a serious concern. There is an urgent need to frame pertinent conservation and management policies for habitat restoration and reintroduction of this species, therefore, the present study will serve as a baseline in this direction.
喜马拉雅鬼臼是一种全球濒危的药用植物，面临着严峻的生存挑战。在本研究中，利用MaxEnt软件对喜马拉雅鬼臼的栖息地适宜性进行建模，以确定当前和未来气候情景下西喜马拉雅地区潜在的适宜栖息地。未来分布建模使用共享社会经济路径；2041 - 2070年期间的SSP126、SSP370和SSP585。将MaxEnt输出地图分为四个潜在栖息地适宜性类别，阈值<0.25为“不适宜”，0.25 - 0.50为“最不适宜”，0.51 - 0.75为“中等适宜”，>0.75为“高度适宜”。此外，采用叠加分析来计算损失、增益和无变化区域。还计算了质心迁移方向和距离。该模型表明，最干燥月份的降水量和年平均气温决定了喜马拉雅鬼臼的分布。在未来气候情景下，预计该物种的分布将发生显著变化，在SSP370和SSP585路径下分别失去8.12%和8.25%的适宜栖息地。在SSP126路径下，预计该物种将获得1.63%的面积。预计在所有气候情景下该物种都将向东南方向迁移，并且随着气候极端性增加，质心迁移距离也将增加。尽管其适宜栖息地与保护区的重叠在保护其野生种群方面发挥着重要作用。由于栖息地破碎化、自然更新或种子萌发率低以及休眠期延长导致的个体数量下降仍然是一个严重问题。迫切需要制定相关的保护和管理政策以恢复栖息地并重新引入该物种，因此，本研究将在这个方向上作为一个基线。
