Steel E Ashley, Stoner Oliver, Podschwit Harry, Paz Bruno, Bombelli Ilaria, Simon Sophia L, Peterson Erin, Weimar Holger, Glasenapp Sebastian, Sikkema Richard, Elhassan Nazik, Bailis Rob, Steierer Florian, Souza Leonardo R
Forestry Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome, Italy.
School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland, UK.
Nat Commun. 2025 Jul 15;16(1):6227. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-59733-y.
Global wood fuel production can indicate opportunities and also challenges in sustainable development, forest management, and energy access. Estimates of wood fuel removals and charcoal production are essential for tracking global goals yet reliable measurements are rare. We synthesize existing understanding through a mechanistic, conceptual model and build on it to develop statistical models from official statistics and over 2000 newly identified data points. For 2019, we estimate 2525.7 million m of wood fuel removals globally, approximately 30% higher than previously understood. Our estimates are 50% higher in Africa and 40% higher in Asia, 10% lower in the Americas and 20% lower in Europe. Global production of wood charcoal is estimated at 70.5 million tonnes, approximately 50% higher than previous values; our estimates are 20% higher in Africa and 200% higher in Asia. These estimates describe global shifts in wood fuel removals and charcoal production and improve our understanding of the forest sector; they will likely underlie global models used to forecast future trends.
全球木材燃料生产既可以表明可持续发展、森林管理和能源获取方面的机遇,也能体现其中的挑战。对木材燃料采伐量和木炭产量的估算对于追踪全球目标至关重要,但可靠的测量数据却很少见。我们通过一个机械的概念模型综合现有的认识,并在此基础上利用官方统计数据和2000多个新确定的数据点开发统计模型。对于2019年,我们估计全球木材燃料采伐量为2.5257亿立方米,比之前的认识高出约30%。我们的估算在非洲高出50%,在亚洲高出40%,在美洲低10%,在欧洲低20%。全球木炭产量估计为7050万吨,比之前的值高出约50%;我们的估算在非洲高出20%,在亚洲高出200%。这些估算描述了全球木材燃料采伐量和木炭产量的变化,增进了我们对森林部门的了解;它们很可能成为用于预测未来趋势的全球模型的基础。