Forest Biodiversity Research Network, Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon 97331, USA.
Global Trophic Cascades Program, Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon 97331, USA.
Nature. 2017 Jul 27;547(7664):441-444. doi: 10.1038/nature23285. Epub 2017 Jul 19.
Global biodiversity loss is a critical environmental crisis, yet the lack of spatial data on biodiversity threats has hindered conservation strategies. Theory predicts that abrupt biodiversity declines are most likely to occur when habitat availability is reduced to very low levels in the landscape (10-30%). Alternatively, recent evidence indicates that biodiversity is best conserved by minimizing human intrusion into intact and relatively unfragmented landscapes. Here we use recently available forest loss data to test deforestation effects on International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List categories of extinction risk for 19,432 vertebrate species worldwide. As expected, deforestation substantially increased the odds of a species being listed as threatened, undergoing recent upgrading to a higher threat category and exhibiting declining populations. More importantly, we show that these risks were disproportionately high in relatively intact landscapes; even minimal deforestation has had severe consequences for vertebrate biodiversity. We found little support for the alternative hypothesis that forest loss is most detrimental in already fragmented landscapes. Spatial analysis revealed high-risk hot spots in Borneo, the central Amazon and the Congo Basin. In these regions, our model predicts that 121-219 species will become threatened under current rates of forest loss over the next 30 years. Given that only 17.9% of these high-risk areas are formally protected and only 8.9% have strict protection, new large-scale conservation efforts to protect intact forests are necessary to slow deforestation rates and to avert a new wave of global extinctions.
全球生物多样性丧失是一个严重的环境危机,但由于缺乏生物多样性威胁的空间数据,保护策略受到了阻碍。理论预测,当景观中栖息地的可用性降低到非常低的水平(10-30%)时,生物多样性最有可能突然减少。或者,最近的证据表明,通过最小化人类对完整和相对未破碎景观的干扰,生物多样性可以得到最好的保护。在这里,我们使用最近可用的森林损失数据来检验森林砍伐对全球 19,432 种脊椎动物物种的国际自然保护联盟濒危物种红色名录的灭绝风险类别的影响。正如预期的那样,森林砍伐大大增加了一个物种被列为受威胁物种的可能性,最近升级到更高的威胁类别,并显示出种群数量下降。更重要的是,我们表明,这些风险在相对完整的景观中不成比例地高;即使是最小的森林砍伐也对脊椎动物的生物多样性产生了严重的后果。我们几乎没有支持替代假设的证据,即森林砍伐在已经碎片化的景观中危害最大。空间分析显示,在婆罗洲、中亚马逊和刚果盆地存在高风险热点地区。在这些地区,我们的模型预测,在未来 30 年内,按照目前的森林砍伐速度,将有 121-219 种物种面临威胁。考虑到这些高风险地区只有 17.9%得到正式保护,只有 8.9%受到严格保护,需要开展新的大规模保护努力,以保护完整的森林,减缓森林砍伐速度,并避免新一轮的全球灭绝。