Stoner Oliver, Lewis Jessica, Martínez Itzel Lucio, Gumy Sophie, Economou Theo, Adair-Rohani Heather
School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
Department of Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Nat Commun. 2021 Oct 4;12(1):5793. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-26036-x.
Household air pollution generated from the use of polluting cooking fuels and technologies is a major source of disease and environmental degradation in low- and middle-income countries. Using a novel modelling approach, we provide detailed global, regional and country estimates of the percentages and populations mainly using 6 fuel categories (electricity, gaseous fuels, kerosene, biomass, charcoal, coal) and overall polluting/clean fuel use - from 1990-2020 and with urban/rural disaggregation. Here we show that 53% of the global population mainly used polluting cooking fuels in 1990, dropping to 36% in 2020. In urban areas, gaseous fuels currently dominate, with a growing reliance on electricity; in rural populations, high levels of biomass use persist alongside increasing use of gaseous fuels. Future projections of observed trends suggest 31% will still mainly use polluting fuels in 2030, including over 1 billion people in Sub-Saharan African by 2025.
使用污染性烹饪燃料和技术产生的家庭空气污染是低收入和中等收入国家疾病和环境退化的主要来源。我们采用一种新颖的建模方法，提供了1990年至2020年期间主要使用6种燃料类别（电力、气体燃料、煤油、生物质、木炭、煤炭）以及总体污染/清洁燃料使用情况的详细全球、区域和国家估计数，并按城乡进行了分类。我们在此表明，1990年全球53%的人口主要使用污染性烹饪燃料，到2020年降至36%。在城市地区，气体燃料目前占主导地位，对电力的依赖也在增加；在农村人口中，生物质的高使用水平与气体燃料使用的增加并存。对观察到的趋势的未来预测表明，到2030年仍有31%的人口将主要使用污染性燃料，到2025年撒哈拉以南非洲地区将有超过10亿人。
