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通过时空分析对尼日利亚奥约州结核病发病率和死亡率的监测。

Surveillance of tuberculosis incidence and mortality through spatio-temporal analysis in Oyo State, Nigeria.

作者信息

Teibo Titilade Kehinde Ayandeyi, Berra Thais Zamboni, Alves Yan Mathias, Tavares Reginaldo Bazon Vaz, Olayemi Oluwaseyi Ademo, Arcêncio Ricardo Alexandre

机构信息

Department of Maternal and Child Nursing and Public Health, University of São Paulo College of Nursing at Ribeirão Preto, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil.

Department of Physiology, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Osun State, Nigeria.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2025 Jul 16;20(7):e0311739. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0311739. eCollection 2025.


DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0311739
PMID:40668812
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12266401/
Abstract

The study aimed to describe the epidemiological profile of Tuberculosis (TB) and analyze the spatial distribution and temporal trend of TB incidence and mortality in Oyo state Nigeria from 2015-2019. The study was composed of TB cases and deaths reported by the Oyo State Health Secretariat between 2015 and 2019. The purely spatial, space-time scanning and the Getis-Ord Gi* techniques were used to analyze the spatial characteristics of TB and to identify areas at risk for its occurrence and deaths based on rates in each unit of analysis - Local Government Area (LGA), while the time series analysis technique was used to assess the characteristics of TB in Oyo state over the period studied. The standardized rates of sex and age were considered for data analysis. We analyzed 28,670 new cases of pulmonary and extra pulmonary TB as well as 1142 deaths reported in all LGAs between 2015 and 2019. Ibadan South West local government had the highest rate and risk (334 cases per 100,000), solely constituting above 10% of all cases reported in all 33 LGAs and for deaths the rate was 19.01 cases/100,000 inhabitants. Ido and Oluyole LGAs were Hot Spot regions for TB with a 99% confidence interval (CI) for TB incidence; about TB mortality, five municipalities were identified with a spatial association at 95% CI. The historical series of TB incidence rate slightly increased between the years 2015-2017, with a sharp decline from then until 2019. The temporal trend for the incidence and mortality of TB in the period under study decreased. This study contributes to knowing the epidemiological profile, the spatial and temporal distribution, and areas with higher risk of TB transmission in Oyo state. This makes it possible for policy makers to target hotspot areas for intervention and disease prevention.

摘要

该研究旨在描述结核病(TB)的流行病学概况,并分析2015年至2019年尼日利亚奥约州结核病发病率和死亡率的空间分布及时间趋势。该研究由奥约州卫生秘书处报告的2015年至2019年期间的结核病病例和死亡数据组成。运用纯空间分析、时空扫描分析和Getis-Ord Gi*技术来分析结核病的空间特征,并根据每个分析单元(地方政府区域,LGA)的发病率确定结核病发生和死亡的风险区域,同时使用时间序列分析技术来评估研究期间奥约州结核病的特征。数据分析时考虑了性别和年龄的标准化率。我们分析了2015年至2019年期间所有地方政府区域报告的28670例新的肺结核和肺外结核病例以及1142例死亡病例。伊巴丹西南部地方政府的发病率和风险最高(每10万人中有334例),仅占所有33个地方政府区域报告病例总数的10%以上,而死亡率为每10万居民中有19.01例。伊多和奥卢约勒地方政府区域是结核病的热点地区,结核病发病率的99%置信区间(CI);关于结核病死亡率,确定了五个城市地区在95%CI时有空间关联。2015年至2017年期间结核病发病率的历史序列略有上升,从那时起直至2019年急剧下降。研究期间结核病发病率和死亡率的时间趋势呈下降趋势。本研究有助于了解奥约州结核病的流行病学概况、空间和时间分布以及结核病传播风险较高的地区。这使得政策制定者能够将干预和疾病预防的目标对准热点地区。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3ff5/12266401/8fce20662552/pone.0311739.g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3ff5/12266401/937d0f25c396/pone.0311739.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3ff5/12266401/7f78a3103854/pone.0311739.g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3ff5/12266401/6336316ca9a2/pone.0311739.g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3ff5/12266401/5293c356311f/pone.0311739.g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3ff5/12266401/8f82c3b27e77/pone.0311739.g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3ff5/12266401/8fce20662552/pone.0311739.g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3ff5/12266401/937d0f25c396/pone.0311739.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3ff5/12266401/7f78a3103854/pone.0311739.g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3ff5/12266401/6336316ca9a2/pone.0311739.g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3ff5/12266401/5293c356311f/pone.0311739.g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3ff5/12266401/8f82c3b27e77/pone.0311739.g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3ff5/12266401/8fce20662552/pone.0311739.g006.jpg

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本文引用的文献

[1]
Geo-spatial high-risk clusters of Tuberculosis in the global general population: a systematic review.

BMC Public Health. 2023-8-19

[2]
Spatial analysis and influencing factors of pulmonary tuberculosis among students in Nanning, during 2012-2018.

PLoS One. 2022

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Mapping local hot spots with routine tuberculosis data: A pragmatic approach to identify spatial variability.

PLoS One. 2022

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Sci Rep. 2022-3-10

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BMC Public Health. 2021-11-26

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Curr HIV/AIDS Rep. 2020-10

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Afr J Infect Dis. 2018-12-12

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Sci Rep. 2018-6-7

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