南非豪登省家庭新冠病毒传播的基于主体的模型。
An agent-based model for household COVID-19 transmission in Gauteng, South Africa.
作者信息
Agusto Folashade B, Fabris-Rotelli Inger, Edholm Christina J, Maposa Innocent, Chirove Faraimunashe, Chukwu Chidozie W, Goldsman David, Lenhart Suzanne
机构信息
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas, United States of America.
Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, North-West University, Potchefstroom, South Africa.
出版信息
PLoS One. 2025 Jul 16;20(7):e0325619. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0325619. eCollection 2025.
Since the discovery of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China in 2019, close to seven million people have died from the infection. At the onset of the pandemic, many countries enacted stringent measures such as school and event closings in a bid to control and curtail the spread of the virus, leading to many within-household infections as people spent more time at home. This study develops an agent-based model (ABM) to gain insight into the impact of government COVID-19 mitigation guidelines and policy options on within-household and community COVID-19 infections in Gauteng, South Africa. Gauteng is the province in South Africa having the smallest land area, but it accounts for 25.8% of the country's population. Agents are randomly assigned to cells on a [Formula: see text] square grid varying according to Gauteng's population density and household size distribution. We found that the percentage of within-household infections is higher in communities with smaller population densities, with the reverse being true for communities with larger population densities. Furthermore, as the agents' movement activation rate increases, community-related infections increase, especially in communities with small population densities. Our study found an interesting phenomenon, observed for the first time: the existence of a movement activation threshold where the percentage and number of outside household infections overtake the percentage and number of within household infections when the activation rate increases. Lastly, our simulation results captured the two epidemic peaks experienced in Gauteng from March 30, 2020 to June 22, 2021 while varying quarantine violation and movement activation rates. Thus, the developed ABM can be used to exploit the implications of COVID-19 mitigation guidelines and policy options on household transmission to provide interesting insights.
自2019年新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)在中国武汉被发现以来,已有近700万人死于该感染。在疫情初期,许多国家颁布了严格措施,如关闭学校和活动场所,以控制和遏制病毒传播,这导致人们在家中待的时间更长,从而引发了许多家庭内部感染。本研究开发了一种基于主体的模型(ABM),以深入了解南非豪登省的政府COVID-19缓解指南和政策选项对家庭内部和社区COVID-19感染的影响。豪登省是南非面积最小的省份,但占该国人口的25.8%。主体被随机分配到一个根据豪登省人口密度和家庭规模分布而变化的[公式:见原文]正方形网格中的单元格。我们发现,在人口密度较小的社区,家庭内部感染的百分比更高,而在人口密度较大的社区则相反。此外,随着主体的移动激活率增加,与社区相关的感染也会增加,尤其是在人口密度较小的社区。我们的研究发现了一个首次观察到的有趣现象:存在一个移动激活阈值,当激活率增加时,家庭外部感染的百分比和数量会超过家庭内部感染的百分比和数量。最后,我们的模拟结果捕捉到了豪登省在2020年3月30日至2021年6月22日期间经历的两个疫情高峰,同时改变了违反隔离规定和移动激活率。因此,所开发的ABM可用于探究COVID-19缓解指南和政策选项对家庭传播的影响,以提供有趣的见解。